Description
“I do not think that Iran intends to strike either Israel or the Gulf directly at the moment,” King's College London academic, Dr Andreas Krieg, told TRT World.“The current spiral of escalation is somewhat restrained by Iran and follows a clear strategic calculus focusing on the United States,” he added, explaining further that so long as Gulf states and Israel kept out of the crisis, Tehran would not include them in its retaliation calculus.
According to Krieg, Gulf states had used direct and non-direct means to ensure they do not “fall within the scope of further escalation” and that for Tehran attacking Gulf states, such as the UAE would be counterproductive for its already fragile economy.
“Dubai has absolutely no military value as a target and maintains crucial avenues for the IRGC and the Iranian deep state to generate money.
“Dubai is the gate to the world for the Iranian deep state. It would not make sense to hit it.
“Abu Dhabi has ensured recently as a way of making concessions to Tehran that Iran can continue using Dubai as a financial hub despite US sanctions.”
Nevertheless, Krieg said possible further Iranian escalation would focus on Iraq and Syria, where the US had many “soft targets”.
| Period | 8 Jan 2020 |
|---|---|
| Held at | TRT World, Turkey |
Keywords
- Iran