Activity: Other › Types of Public engagement and outreach - Media article or participation
Description
Andreas Krieg, associate professor in security studies at King’s College London, warns that direct US involvement in the conflict would risk unleashing a new level of regional fighting.
“If the US joined the fight over Iran, it would lead to a major escalation of strikes and IRGC activities across the Gulf against shipping and energy infrastructure,” Krieg told Al Jazeera. “Iran would also try to strike US bases in the Gulf.”
Krieg said the US would only get involved if it was “willing to bear the costs of regime change”, which would contradict Trump’s “America First” agenda.
“It is still unlikely at this point that the US will do that as it would undermine the entire narrative of Trump’s agenda to withdraw from the Middle East,” he noted.
Nevertheless, Krieg sees a possible diplomatic off-ramp if Trump reins in Netanyahu and pressures Israel “to cease operations and return to the negotiation table”.
“Iran would have to be able to build a victory narrative and then trust the Americans enough to keep Netanyahu in check,” he noted.