Description
'I think there is a growing realisation among the IDF, among security services and among the public, that the military cannot free these hostages or get these hostages out alive,' explains Dr Andreas Krieg, Assistant Professor of Defence Studies at King's College London. 'There is a realisation there is no military way to get them out so that increases the pressure on the government to respond and seek a deal.'There is a realisation that this kind of operational tempo is not sustainable. It's not sustainable in terms of the casualties that are being generated. The amount of casualties among Palestinian civilians is completely unprecedented, I think, in modern warfare because ultimately [the IDF] can't leave. They're just there.'
These releases will be harder to justify for an Israeli government tasked with promising its citizens security. But 'Hamas has moved forwards in terms of their demands,' Dr Krieg explains.
Hamas is 'realising the IDF is not making the progress that they thought they were making and the IDF is realising that this military solution is going to take years.
'But there is no stomach in the US or domestically to keep this going at the current rate so something has got to give.'
'With all the different solutions that are being thrown around at the moment... it is very clear that Israel will not surrender the security side of the story to a third party,' adds Dr Krieg. 'A scenario whereby a new authority in Gaza would have control over all elements of statecraft, governance and security... That's not going to happen.'
'I don't think that's a feasible solution because not only is the Arab League against it, I think the European Union is against it and the US is against it as well,' says Dr Krieg. 'I don't see that Israel would push this forward - at least in the short term.'
To Gaza's east, three zones, A, B and C, were set up during the Oslo Accords while negotiations were held. When talks broke down, the zones 'became the permanent solution - and that's 30 years in the making'. Since then, Israel has built settlements in B and C, particularly in C Zone, 'which now makes statehood for Palestine - based on the current status quo - impossible,' says Dr Krieg.
Others have suggested a UN-brokered process with multiple stakeholders guarding the Gaza Strip and Arab states taking over 'some sort of mentoring role', says Dr Krieg. Under a UN-brokered mandate or a UN-Arab League mandate, Israel would have some say in decision-making in Gaza and reserve the right to intervene 'wherever necessary to push back against armed groups'.
| Period | 13 Jan 2024 |
|---|---|
| Held at | Daily Mail, United Kingdom |
Keywords
- Israel
- Gaza