Description
For Andreas Krieg, assistant professor at the Defence Studies Department of King's College London, the failure in recent ceasefires is calculated.“Both sides know that they don't really want the ceasefire,” he told MEE. “They still think that they can win ground and seize objectives through fighting rather than negotiation.”
Krieg refers to “ripeness theory”, an international relations hypothesis which posits that only once both sides of a conflict realise that they cannot win by further escalation will a political resolution be sought.
“The time isn't ripe for both sides to actually sit down at the negotiation table,” Krieg said.
“Both sides are extremely well positioned. They're well armed, they're well staffed. They're well paid to continue fighting.”
“The external patrons have a vested interest in making sure that their surrogates are winning,” said Krieg, citing Cairo and Abu Dhabi in particular.
“If you look at Egypt… they're quite determined to continue to support Burhan. There's no circumstance where Egypt would accept the RSF taking over and winning.”
| Period | 3 May 2023 |
|---|---|
| Held at | Middle East Eye, United States |
Keywords
- Sudan
- UAE