The red lines that could spark wider war in the Middle East

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Both sides remain wary of open conflict, says Dr Anders Krieg, a senior lecturer in security studies at King’s College London. “I would say that the overall strategic appetite for escalation is still very low on both sides,” he said, noting that the US and Iran are likely to be in back-channel dialogue to manage the risks.

But the attack on Tower 22 was “a threshold crossed” and Washington will respond, Dr Krieg added. This is most likely to take the form of a strike targeting Iranian personnel in Iraq or Syria, he believes.

A strike inside Iran would mark a further escalation that could trigger a powerful Iranian response. Dr Krieg suggests this could involve “a major mass-casualty attack on US interests and personnel in the region. Possibly several targets at the same time”.

Period	2 Feb 2024
Held at	i News, United Kingdom