US-GCC Relations In The ‘Trump 2.0’ Era

Description

Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor
in Security Studies at King’s College
London, explains that Gulf nations are
not per se involved in “direct political
lobbying” in Washington. Their efforts
“are primarily focused on creating
interconnectivity between key individuals
within an administration and the
Gulf through commercial statecraft and
interdependence rather than lobbying.”
“The Israeli lobby is very good at getting
you re-elected, something the Gulf
lobby can’t do,” he says, adding that, however,
“the Gulf lobby might be more interesting”
for Mr Trump given his desire
to create “personal wealth and legacy.”
As such, the Gulf’s soft power could
potentially counter the pro-Israel
members of his cabinet by offering “big
business” opportunities for the US,
whether at home or in the region. “Trump
himself is not an ideologue. His support
for Israel is pragmatic, he’s not a Zionist
in the same way as Biden might be. So,
he’s very interested in business and is
very transactional. He won’t get reelected
reelected,
and he needs the Gulf to secure
big deals for America,” adds Mr Kreig.
But for this to work, Gulf nations
ought to “actually work together [in
Washington] and be able to use the
leverage they have effectively towards
a common vision and objective,” Mr
Kreig says, cautioning that “for now
they only support their national interests
and have never really lobbied
for [common] external interests like
the Palestinian cause or consolidating
social and political authority in Syria.”
Gulf nations may “not necessarily be
aware of the leverage they have when
combining Qatari US LNG investments
and the Saudis’ mastering of
the oil lever that they have used for the
past 50 years or so,” says Mr Krieg. He
concludes “for the first time in a long
time, the Gulf is seeing eye to eye on
most issues, and Trump will have to
accommodate the Gulf states probably
advancing a more comprehensive
policy outside just investment in energy.”
Other analysts polled are less confident
in a common GCC-stance emerging.

Period	3 Jan 2025
Held at	MEES, Saudi Arabia