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Professor Toby Prevost

Education/Academic qualification

  • Doctor of Philosophy, Social Statistics, University of Southampton

  • Master in Science, Statistics with Applications in Medicine, University of Southampton

  • Bachelor of Science, Mathematics with Statistics, University of Southampton


Biographical details

Toby Prevost is the Nightingale-Saunders Professor of Complex Clinical Trials and Statistics, within the King's College London Florence Nightingale Faculty of Nursing, Midwifery and Palliative Care, and the Director of the Nightingale-Saunders Clinical Trials and Epidemiology Unit, which is a specialist section of the King's Clinical Trials Unit.


Toby was previously (2016-2020) Chair of Clinical Trials and Medical Statistics at Imperial College London, and Head of Statistics, in the Imperial Clinical Trials Unit. He is currently an Honorary Visiting Professor at Imperial College London.


He first worked in London as a Reader (2009) and then (2012) Professor of Medical Statistics as Deputy Director of the Unit for Medical Statistics in the Public Health Sciences Department at King's College London.


Before this he was a Senior Medical Statistician (2002-2009) and Medical Statistician (1991-1993 and 1996-2002) in the Department of Public Health and Primary Care at the University of Cambridge and Senior Research Scientiist (2002-2006) in the Cambridge MRC Biostatistics Unit.


He studied at the University of Southampton, completing a BSc in Mathematics with Statistics (1990), MSc in Statistics with Applications in Medicine (1991), and PhD in Social Statistics - Multilevel Modelling of child mortality (1996). 


He has served on national committees: the NICE Public Health Interventions Advisory Committee (2008-2013); the NICE Public Health Advisory Committee (2013-2020); as Expert Panel Member of the SACN (Scientific Advisory Committee on Nutrition) with NICE Rapid Guideline for Vitamin D and Covid-19 (2020); the NIHR Public Health Research Funding Committee (2014-2020); the NIHR Covid-19 Recovery and Learning Funding Committee (2020) and the Cancer Research UK Prevention & Population Expert Review Panel (2021-present); as an NIHR Public Health Research Applications and Design Advisor (2020-present); as Independent Advisory Board member on the NIHR Central-region PHIRST (Public Health Interventions Responsive Studies Team) led by University of Hertfordshire; and on the European Funding Board for sub-macular haemorrhage for EURETINA/Fight for Sight.


He has experience in complex interventions trials, including primary care prevention trials of interventions to support change in lifestyle behaviours such as physical activity (preventive of Type 2 diabetes) and smoking cessation, and medication adhererence, and complex interventions in improving breathlessness in palliative care.


His experience in clinical treatment trials is broad though with a focus of application within ophthalmology, rheumatology, diabetes, critical care, and breathlessness in palliative care.


He also has experience in early phase trials, including Phase I to II dose-finding trials that are 'adaptive', in learning as they go along and being able to be more efficient.


He has been involved in over 175 published research collaborations, and with a Scopus H-Index of 50 of the publications cited at least this number of times


This is a selection of research collaborations (with statisticians shown in bold):


Eldred-Evans D, Burak P, Connor MJ, Day E, Evans M, Fiorentino F, Gammon M, Hosking-Jervis F, Klimowska-Nassar N, McGuire W, Padhani AR, Prevost AT, Price D, Sokhi H, Tam H, Winkler M, Ahmed HU. Population-based prostate cancer screening with Magnetic Resonance or Ultrasound Imaging: The IP1-PROSTAGRAM study. JAMA Oncology 2021;7(3):395-402


Kenkre JS, Ahmed AR, Purkayastha S, Malallah K, Bloom S, Blakemore A, Prevost AT, Tan T. Who will benefit from bariatric surgery for diabetes? A protocol for an observational cohort study. BMJ Open 2021 Feb 10;11(2):e042355. NIHR Doctoral Fellowship funded.


Tan T, Khoo B, Mills EG, Phylactou M, Patel B, Eng PC, Thurston L, Muzi B, Meeran K, Prevost AT, Comninos AN, Abbara A, Dhillo WS. Association between high serum total cortisol concentrations and mortality from COVID-19. Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology 2020;8:659-60


Hardeman W, Mitchell J, Pears S, Van Emmenis M, Theil F, GC VS, Vasconcelos JC, Westgate K, Brage S, Suhrcke M, Griffin S, Kinmonth AL, Wilson ECF, Prevost AT, Sutton S. Evaluation of a very brief pedometer-based physical activity intervention delivered in NHS Health Checks: The VBI randomised controlled trial. Plos Medicine 2020; Mar 6;17(3):e1003046. NIHR PGfAR funded.


Sivaprasad S, Raman R, Rajalakshmi R, Mohan V, Deepa M, Das T, Ramasamy K, Prevost AT, Wittenberg R, Netuveli G, Lingam G, Hanif W, Ramakrishnan R, Ramu J, Surya J, Conroy D; SMART India Study Collaborators. Protocol on a multicentre statistical and economic modelling study of risk-based stratified and personalised screening for diabetes and its complications in India (SMART India). BMJ Open 2020 Dec 12;10(12):e039657. RCUK (MRC) funded.


Hykin P, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos JC, Murphy C, Kelly J, Ramu J, Hounsome B, Yang Y, Harding SP, Lotery A, Chakravarthy U, Sivaprasad S; LEAVO Study Group. Clinical Effectiveness of Intravitreal Therapy With Ranibizumab vs Aflibercept vs Bevacizumab for Macular Edema Secondary to Central Retinal Vein Occlusion: A Randomized Clinical Trial. JAMA Ophthalmology 2019 Aug 29. NIHR HTA funded.


Jawad S, Modi N, Prevost AT, Gale C. A systematic review identifying common data items in neonatal trials and assessing their completeness in routinely recorded United Kingdom national neonatal data. Trials 2019;20:731. PhD studentship.


Al-Laith M, Jasenecova M, Abraham S, Bosworth A, Bruce IN, Buckley CD, Ciurtin C, D’Agostino M-A, Emery P, Gaston H, Isaacs JD, Filer A, Fisher BA, Huizinga TWJ, Ho P, Jacklin C, Lempp H, McInnes IB, Pratt AG, Östor A, Raza K, Taylor PC, van Schaardenburg D, Shivapatham D, Wright AJ, Vasconcelos JC, Kelly J, Murphy C, Prevost AT, Cope AP. Arthritis prevention in the pre-clinical phase of RA with abatacept (the APIPPRA study): a multi-centre, randomised, double blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled clinical trial protocol. Trials 2019;20:429. Bristol-Myers Squibb funded.


Santhakumaran S, Gordon A, Prevost AT, O'Kane C, McAuley DF, Shankar-Hari M. Heterogeneity of Treatment Effect by Baseline Risk of Mortality in Critically Ill Patients: Re-analysis of three recent Sepsis and ARDS Randomised Controlled Trials. Critical Care 2019;23(1):156. NIHR/MRC EME funded.


Behary P, Tharakan G, Alexiadou K, Johnson N, Wewer Albrechtsen NJ, Kenkre J, Cuenco J, Hope D, Anyiam O, Choudhury S, Alessimii H, Poddar A, Minnion J, Doyle C, Frost G, Le Roux C, Purkayastha S,  Moorthy K, Dhillo W, Holst JJ, Ahmed AR, Prevost AT, Bloom SR, Tan TM. Combined GLP-1, oxyntomodulin and peptide YY improves body weight and glycaemia in obesity and prediabetes/type 2 diabetes: a randomized single-blinded placebo controlled study. Diabetes Care 2019;42(8):1446-53


Gulliford MC, Prevost AT, Charlton J, Juszczyk D, Soames J, McDermott L, Sultana K, Wright M, Fox R, Hay A, Little P, Moore MV, Yardley L, Ashworth M. Effectiveness and safety of electronically-delivered prescribing feedback and decision support on antibiotic utilization for respiratory illness in primary care. BMJ 2019;364:I236. NIHR HTA funded.


Sivaprasad S, Vasconcelos JC, Prevost AT, Holmes H, Hykin P, George S, Murphy C, Kelly J, Arden GB. Clinical efficacy and safety of a light mask for prevention of dark adaption in treating and preventing progression of early diabetic macular oedema at 24 months (CLEOPATRA): a multicentre, phase 3, randomised controlled trial. Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology 2018;6:382-391. NIHR/MRC EME funded.


Sivaprasad S, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos JC, Riddell A, Murphy C, Kelly J, Bainbridge J, Tudor-Edwards R, Hopkins D, Hykin P. Clinical efficacy of intravitreal aflibercept versus panretinal photocoagulation for best corrected visual acuity in patients with proliferative diabetic retinopathy at 52 weeks (CLARITY): a multicentre, single-blinded, randomised, controlled, phase 2b, non-inferiority trial. The Lancet 2017;389:2193-2203. NIHR/MRC EME funded.


Ibrahim F, Tom BDM, Scott DL, Prevost AT. A systematic review of randomised controlled trials in rheumatoid arthritis: the reporting and handling of missing data in composite outcomes. Trials 2016 Jun;17(1):272. PhD Studentship.


Kirkham B, Chaabo K, Hall C, Garrood T, Mant T, Allen E, Vincent A, Vasconcelos JC, Prevost AT, Panayi GS, Corrigall VM. Safety and patient response as indicated by biomarker changes to BiP in the Phase I/IIa RAGULA clinical trial in rheumatoid arthritis. Rheumatology 2016 Nov;55(11):1993-2000.


Farquhar M, Prevost AT, McCrone P, Brafman-Price B, Bentley A, Higginson IJ, Todd C, Booth S. The clinical and cost-effectiveness of a Breathlessness Intervention Service for patients with advanced non-malignant disease and their informal carers - mixed findings of a mixed method randomised controlled trial. Trials 2016 Apr;17:185. NIHR RfPB funded.


Farquhar MC, Prevost AT, McCrone P, Brafman-Price B, Bentley A, Higginson IJ, Todd C, Booth S. Is a specialist breathlessness service more effective and cost-effective for patients with advanced cancer and their carers than standard care? Findings of a mixed-method randomised controlled trial.  BMC Medicine. 2014;12:194. NIHR RfPB funded.


Naughton F, Jamison J, Boase S, Sloan M, Gilbert H, Prevost AT, Mason D, Smith S, Brimicombe J, Evans R, Sutton S. Randomized controlled trial to assess the short-term effectiveness of tailored web- and text-based facilitation of smoking cessation in primary care (iQuit in Practice). Addiction 2014;109:1184-93. CRUK funded.


Corrie PG, Moody AM, Armstrong G, Nolasco S, Lao-Sirieix S-H, Bavister L, Prevost AT, Parker R, Sabes-Figuera R, McCrone P, Balsdon H, McKinnon K, Hounsell A, O’Sullivan B, Barclay S. Is community treatment best? A randomised trial comparing delivery of cancer treatment in the hospital, home and GP surgery. British Journal of Cancer 2013;109:1549-55. NIHR RfPB funded.


Simmons RK, Echouffo-Tcheugui JB, Sharp SJ, Sargeant LA, Williams KM, Prevost AT, Kinmonth AL, Wareham NJ, Griffin SJ . Screening for type 2 diabetes and population mortality over 10 years (ADDITION-Cambridge): a cluster-randomised controlled trial. The Lancet 2012;380(9855):1741-8


Hollands GJ, Whitwell SC, Parker RA, Prescott NJ, Forbes A, Sanderson J, Mathew CG, Lewis CM, Watts S, Sutton S, Armstrong D, Kinmonth AL, Prevost AT, Marteau TM. Effect of communicating DNA based risk assessments for Crohn's disease on smoking cessation: randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2012;345:e4708.


Kelly JD, Dudderidge TJ, Wollenschlaeger A, Okoturo O, Burling K, Tulloch F, Halsall I, Prevost T, Prevost AT, Vasconcelos JC, Robson W, Leung HY, Vasdev N, Pickard RS, Williams GH, Stoeber K. Bladder cancer diagnosis and identification of clinically significant disease by combined urinary detection of mcm5 and nuclear matrix protein 22. PLoS One 2012;7:e40305.


Walter FM, Morris HC, Humphrys E, Hall PN, Prevost AT, Burrows N, Bradshaw L, Wilson EC, Norris P, Walls J, Johnson M, Kinmonth AL, Emery JD. Effect of adding a diagnostic aid to best practice to manage suspicious pigmented lesions in primary care: randomised controlled trial. BMJ 2012;345:e4110


A selection of current grants:


An Open-label, Phase I/II Dose Escalation Trial of a Photoreceptor Transplantation in Adults with Cone Dystrophy. PI: Robin Ali (KCL). MRC DPFS


TRIBUTE: Targeted Regulatory T Cell Therapy for Inflammatory Bowel Disease. Phase I/II Adaptive dose-finding trial. PI: Graham Lord (KCL) MRC DPFS


ALTO: Arthritis prevention in the pre-clinical phase of RA with Abatacept – Long Term Outcome Study. PI: Andrew Cope (KCL) Bristol-Myers Squibb


iPREVENT: Increase colonic propionate as a method of preventing weight gain in young adults (RCT). PI: Gary Frost (Imperial) NIHR/MRC EME


PINNACLE: Deciphering AMD by deep phenotyping and machine learning. PI: Andrew Lotery (Southampton) Wellcome Trust Collaborative Award in Science.


Participation in workshop, seminar, course

Challenges and Opportunities of Data and Statistical Methods in Health Research and Practice.

Salma Ayis (Keynote/plenary speaker), Toby Prevost (Keynote/plenary speaker), Gary S Collins (Keynote/plenary speaker), Mark Ashworth (Keynote/plenary speaker) & Camila Caiado (Keynote/plenary speaker)

20 Jun 2019

Activity: Participating in or organising an eventParticipation in workshop, seminar, course

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