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A Dynamic Model for Predicting Survival up to 1 Year After Ischemic Stroke

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Original languageEnglish
Article number105133
JournalJournal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases
Volume29
Issue number10
DOIs
PublishedOct 2020

King's Authors

Abstract

Background: This study developed and validated a dynamic prediction model for survival after ischaemic stroke up to 1 year. Methods: Patients with stroke (n = 425) who participated in a sub-study (2002–2004) from the South London Stroke Register (SLSR) were selected for model derivation. The model was developed using the extended Cox model with time-dependent covariates. The two temporal validation cohorts from SLSR included 1735 (1995–2002) and 2155 patients (2004–2016). The discrimination, calibration and clinical utility of the model were assessed. Results: Six strong predictors were used in the model, namely, age, sex, stroke subtype, stroke severity and pre-stroke and post-stroke disabilities. The c-statistics was 0.822 at 1 year in the derivation cohort. The model had a fair performance with prognostic accuracies of 77%–83% in the validation 1 cohort and 70%–75% in the validation 2 cohort. A good calibration was observed in the derivation cohort. Conclusion: The proposed model can accurately predict survival up to 1 year after ischaemic stroke.

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