A hierarchical network model for epidemic spreading. Analysis of A/H1N1 virus spreading in Romania

TY - JOUR

T1 - A hierarchical network model for epidemic spreading. Analysis of A/H1N1 virus spreading in Romania

AU - Rausanu, Silvia

AU - Grosan, Crina

N1 - Funding Information: This work is partially supported by the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research, CNDI–UEFISCDI, project number PN-II-PT-PCCA-2011-3.2-0917.

PY - 2014/4/1

Y1 - 2014/4/1

N2 - The research in this paper presents a new approach for the modeling of epidemic spread by using a set of connected social networks. The purpose of this work is to simulate the spreading of the well know A/H1N1 pandemic virus. The case study analyzed in this paper refers to the spreading of A/H1N1 in Romania. The epidemic is followed from its beginning throughout its evolution in Romania, i.e. between May 2009 and February 2010. The evolution is performed in a hierarchical way, taking into account the state divisions, the influences among them, national level as well as influences from abroad (from other infected countries). Numerical experiments performed analyze the monthly evolution of the infection in each county and at the country level and compare the results with the real ones (collected during and at the end of the epidemic spread). The simulations results are closer to the reality than the ones provided by the Health Ministry in Romania.

AB - The research in this paper presents a new approach for the modeling of epidemic spread by using a set of connected social networks. The purpose of this work is to simulate the spreading of the well know A/H1N1 pandemic virus. The case study analyzed in this paper refers to the spreading of A/H1N1 in Romania. The epidemic is followed from its beginning throughout its evolution in Romania, i.e. between May 2009 and February 2010. The evolution is performed in a hierarchical way, taking into account the state divisions, the influences among them, national level as well as influences from abroad (from other infected countries). Numerical experiments performed analyze the monthly evolution of the infection in each county and at the country level and compare the results with the real ones (collected during and at the end of the epidemic spread). The simulations results are closer to the reality than the ones provided by the Health Ministry in Romania.

KW - A/H1N1

KW - Epidemics

KW - Social networks

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84894573856&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.amc.2013.12.176

DO - 10.1016/j.amc.2013.12.176

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84894573856

SN - 0096-3003

VL - 233

SP - 39

EP - 54

JO - APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION

JF - APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTATION

ER -