TY - JOUR
T1 - Air quality changes after Hong Kong shipping emission policy
T2 - An accountability study
AU - Mason, Tonya G.
AU - Chan, King Pan
AU - Schooling, C. Mary
AU - Sun, Shengzhi
AU - Yang, Aimin
AU - Barratt, Benjamin
AU - Tian, Linwei
PY - 2019/7
Y1 - 2019/7
N2 - Background On July 1st, 2015, Hong Kong became the first city in Asia to implement a policy regulating sulfur dioxide (SO2) in shipping emissions. We conducted an accountability study assessing the improvement in ambient air quality and estimating the effect on health outcomes of the policy.MethodWe used interrupted time series (ITS) with segmented regression to identify any change in ambient concentrations of SO2 in contrast to other ambient pollutants (particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3)) at 10 monitoring stations in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2017. We validated these findings using cumulative sum control (CUSUM) charts. We used a validated risk assessment model to estimate effects of changes in air quality on death for natural causes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.ResultsMean monthly concentrations of SO2 fell abruptly at the monitoring station closest to the main shipping port (Kwai Chung (KC)) by −10.0 μgm3 p-value = 0.0004, but not elsewhere. No such changes were evident for the other pollutants (PM10, NO2, O3). CUSUM charts confirmed a change in July 2015. Estimated deaths avoided per year as a result of the policy were 379, 72, 30 for all natural causes, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases respectively.ConclusionImplementation of the shipping emission policy in Hong Kong successfully reduced ambient SO2, with the potential to reduce mortality. However, to gain full benefits, restrictions on shipping emissions need to be implemented throughout the region.
AB - Background On July 1st, 2015, Hong Kong became the first city in Asia to implement a policy regulating sulfur dioxide (SO2) in shipping emissions. We conducted an accountability study assessing the improvement in ambient air quality and estimating the effect on health outcomes of the policy.MethodWe used interrupted time series (ITS) with segmented regression to identify any change in ambient concentrations of SO2 in contrast to other ambient pollutants (particulate matter <10 μm in diameter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3)) at 10 monitoring stations in Hong Kong from 2010 to 2017. We validated these findings using cumulative sum control (CUSUM) charts. We used a validated risk assessment model to estimate effects of changes in air quality on death for natural causes, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases.ResultsMean monthly concentrations of SO2 fell abruptly at the monitoring station closest to the main shipping port (Kwai Chung (KC)) by −10.0 μgm3 p-value = 0.0004, but not elsewhere. No such changes were evident for the other pollutants (PM10, NO2, O3). CUSUM charts confirmed a change in July 2015. Estimated deaths avoided per year as a result of the policy were 379, 72, 30 for all natural causes, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases respectively.ConclusionImplementation of the shipping emission policy in Hong Kong successfully reduced ambient SO2, with the potential to reduce mortality. However, to gain full benefits, restrictions on shipping emissions need to be implemented throughout the region.
KW - CUSUM
KW - Interrupted time series
KW - Kwai chung
KW - Segmented regression analysis
KW - Shipping emission policy
KW - Sulfur dioxide
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85064228688&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.03.173
DO - 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2019.03.173
M3 - Article
SN - 0045-6535
VL - 226
SP - 616
EP - 624
JO - Chemosphere
JF - Chemosphere
ER -
