An Analytical Framework for Postmortems of European Foreign Policy: Should Decision-makers have been Surprised?

Nikki Ikani; Aviva  Guttmann; Christoph Meyer

doi:10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384

An Analytical Framework for Postmortems of European Foreign Policy: Should Decision-makers have been Surprised?

Nikki Ikani, Aviva Guttmann, Christoph Meyer

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Abstract

This paper develops a novel theoretical framework for the conduct of postmortems after major foreign policy surprises for the European Union and its member states. It proposes a taxonomy of surprise which elucidates how officials or organisations experience both sudden and slower-burning threats. It argues that foreign policy surprises in European settings require a closer look at who was surprised, in what way, and when. The paper outlines six vital performance criteria and three key attenuating factors, allowing us to better ground judgements about foreign policy performance as well as to advance realistic recommendations on how to improve.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	197-215
Number of pages	19
Journal	Intelligence and National Security
Volume	35
Issue number	2
Early online date	1 Jan 2020
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384
Publication status	Published - 23 Feb 2020

Keywords

Strategic surprise
surprise
foreign policy
POSTMORTEM
warning
intelligence
European Union
performance
receptivity
Theoretical framework
lesson learning

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10.1080/02684527.2019.1704384Licence: CC BY

An Analytical Framework for_IKANI_Acc9Dec2019Epub1Jan2020_GOLD VoR (CC BY)Final published version, 1.94 MBLicence: CC BY

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An Analytical Framework for Postmortems of European Foreign Policy: Should Decision-makers have been Surprised?

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