An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance

Andrew D. C. Williams, Ian M. Hall, G. James Rubin, Richard Amlot, Steve Leach

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the influence of two proposed intervention strategies. We observed that the severity of the resulting epidemic is determined by the degree of personal compliance with said strategies, implying that prior preparedness activities are essential in order that public awareness and willingness to seek treatment is achieved quickly. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)95 - 102
Number of pages8
JournalEpidemics
Volume3
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2011

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