An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance

TY - JOUR

T1 - An individual-based simulation of pneumonic plague transmission following an outbreak and the significance of intervention compliance

AU - Williams, Andrew D. C.

AU - Hall, Ian M.

AU - Rubin, G. James

AU - Amlot, Richard

AU - Leach, Steve

PY - 2011/6

Y1 - 2011/6

N2 - The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the influence of two proposed intervention strategies. We observed that the severity of the resulting epidemic is determined by the degree of personal compliance with said strategies, implying that prior preparedness activities are essential in order that public awareness and willingness to seek treatment is achieved quickly. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

AB - The existence of primary pneumonic plague outbreaks raises concerns over the use of the causative bacteria as an aerosol-based bioweapon. We employed an individual-based model, parameterised using published personal contact information, to assess the severity of a deliberate release in a discrete community, under the influence of two proposed intervention strategies. We observed that the severity of the resulting epidemic is determined by the degree of personal compliance with said strategies, implying that prior preparedness activities are essential in order that public awareness and willingness to seek treatment is achieved quickly. (C) 2011 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.

U2 - 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.001

DO - 10.1016/j.epidem.2011.03.001

M3 - Article

VL - 3

SP - 95

EP - 102

JO - Epidemics

JF - Epidemics

IS - 2

ER -