Association of Lipid Accumulation Product Trajectories with 5-year Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Chinese Adults: A Cohort Study

Guangyu Yan, Fei Li, Christelle Elia, Yating Zhao, Jiangguang Wang, Zhiheng Chen, Hong Yuan, Yao Lu

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14 Citations (Scopus)


Background: Lipid accumulation product (LAP) is an index describing the overaccumulation of lipid. Baseline LAP was used for type 2 diabetes (T2D) prediction in previous studies. But the longitudinal trajectories of LAP, which reflect the efficacy of patients' lipid-lowering treatment and lifestyle improvement, have rarely been studied. The aim of this study is to explore the association of lipid accumulation product trajectories with 5-year incidence of type 2 diabetes. Methods: This cohort study included 4508 non-diabetic participants with a median age of 42 years. Using the group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM), LAP from 2011 to 2016 were determined and identified as three trajectories: low (n = 3639), moderate (n = 800), and high (n = 69). Baseline LAP was divided into groups by percentiles and tertiles respectively for the comparison of LAP trajectories. The associations between 5-year T2D incidence and LAP trajectories and baseline LAP were both assessed by generalized linear models. Results: From 2011 to 2016, 169 participants developed T2D (the 5-year incidence of 3.8%). For participants with low, moderate, and high trajectories, the incidence of T2D was 2.1, 10.0, and 15.9%, respectively. A significant trend was observed in the relative risks (RRs) of 5-year incident T2D in participants with moderate (RR, 1.95; 95% CI: 1.41-2.70) and high LAP trajectory (RR, 2.20; 95% CI: 1.12-4.30) in the fully adjusted model (p for trend< 0.001). However, there were no statically significant trends in RRs in different tertiles of baseline LAP found after full adjustments. Conclusion: The trajectories of LAP has an independent effect on 5-year T2D incidence beyond LAP measured at baseline.

Original languageEnglish
Article number72
JournalNutrition & Metabolism
Issue number1
Publication statusPublished - 21 Oct 2019


  • GLM
  • Lipid accumulation product
  • Trajectory
  • Type 2 diabetes


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