@article{bb4364e123654279891501c2fb5accf6,
title = "Beyond El Ni{\~n}o: Unsung climate modes drive African floods",
abstract = "The El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates the conversation about predictability of climate extremes and early warning and preparedness for floods and droughts, but in Africa other modes of climate variability are also known to influence rainfall anomalies. In this study, we compare the role of ENSO in driving flood hazard over sub-Saharan Africa with modes of climate variability in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. This is achieved by applying flood frequency approaches to a hydrological reanalysis dataset and streamflow observations for different phases of the ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole and Tropical South Atlantic climate modes. Our results highlight that Indian and Atlantic Ocean modes of climate variability are equally as important as ENSO for driving changes in the frequency of impactful floods across Africa. We propose that in many parts of Africa a larger consideration of these unsung climate modes could provide improved seasonal predictions of associated flood hazard and better inform adaptation to the changing climate.",
keywords = "Climate change, Extreme events, Flood hazard, El Ni{\~n}o, Teleconnections, Indian ocean, Tropical South Atlantic",
author = "Claudia Neves and Andrea Ficchi and Hannah Cloke and Steve Woolnough and {Coughlan de Perez}, Erin and Ervin Zsoter and Izidine Pinto and Arlindo Meque and Elisabeth Stephens",
note = "Funding Information: The authors acknowledge the support by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), formerly Department for International Development (grant number NE/P000525/1), under the Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) research programme. Steve Woolnough's contribution was also supported by National Centre for Atmospheric Science ODA national capability programme ACREW (NE/R000034/1), which is supported by NERC and the GCRF. Claudia Neves gratefully acknowledges support from EPSRC-UKRI Innovation Fellowship grant EP/S001263/1. We thank colleagues from the FATHUM and ForPAc projects, and associated project partners (ECMWF and JRC) for the useful discussions related to this work. We would like to acknowledge the anonymous reviewer and the Editor-in-Chief, Lisa Alexander, for their valuable comments and suggestions. Funding Information: The authors acknowledge the support by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO), formerly Department for International Development (grant number NE/P000525/1 ), under the Science for Humanitarian Emergencies and Resilience (SHEAR) research programme. Steve Woolnough's contribution was also supported by National Centre for Atmospheric Science ODA national capability programme ACREW ( NE/R000034/1 ), which is supported by NERC and the GCRF . Claudia Neves gratefully acknowledges support from EPSRC-UKRI Innovation Fellowship grant EP/S001263/1 . We thank colleagues from the FATHUM and ForPAc projects, and associated project partners (ECMWF and JRC) for the useful discussions related to this work. We would like to acknowledge the anonymous reviewer and the Editor-in-Chief, Lisa Alexander, for their valuable comments and suggestions. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",
year = "2021",
month = sep,
doi = "10.1016/j.wace.2021.100345",
language = "English",
volume = "33",
journal = "Weather and Climate Extremes",
issn = "2212-0947",
publisher = "Elsevier BV",
number = "33",
}
