Abstract
Background and Aims: To estimate 30-year projections of stroke incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in the European Union (EU).
Methods: Data from the global burden of disease study between 1990 and 2017 were analysed. Separate projection models by age and sex groups were developed for 28 EU countries to estimate trends in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs rates. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) suggested exponential regressions to provide the best fit. Adjustments were made for two distal predictors: time, capturing medical advances effect; and gross domestic product per capita (GDP), indicating the impact of economic development. Future trajectories were based on the United Nations’ population projections and the World Bank’s GDP prospects.
Results: In 2017, 112 million cases of incident stroke took place in the EU, 953 million prevalent cases, 046 million deaths, and 706 million DALYs lost. By 2047, there will be an additional 40,000 incident cases and 258 million prevalent cases. Conversely, there will be 80,000 fewer deaths and 231 million fewer DALYs. Largest increase in the age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rates are expected in Lithuania (144% and 21% respectively), whereas greatest reductions are estimated in Portugal (–472% and –394%). Change in mortality rates will range from –25% (Lithuania) to –859% (Estonia), and DALYs’ from –7% (Romania) to
–835% (Estonia).
Conclusions: The number of people with stroke is estimated to increase by 27% between 2017 and 2047 in the EU. Improved life expectancy and prevention strategies will result in increased prevalence/burden of stroke in Europe, particularly in Eastern European countries.
Methods: Data from the global burden of disease study between 1990 and 2017 were analysed. Separate projection models by age and sex groups were developed for 28 EU countries to estimate trends in incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs rates. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) suggested exponential regressions to provide the best fit. Adjustments were made for two distal predictors: time, capturing medical advances effect; and gross domestic product per capita (GDP), indicating the impact of economic development. Future trajectories were based on the United Nations’ population projections and the World Bank’s GDP prospects.
Results: In 2017, 112 million cases of incident stroke took place in the EU, 953 million prevalent cases, 046 million deaths, and 706 million DALYs lost. By 2047, there will be an additional 40,000 incident cases and 258 million prevalent cases. Conversely, there will be 80,000 fewer deaths and 231 million fewer DALYs. Largest increase in the age-adjusted incidence and prevalence rates are expected in Lithuania (144% and 21% respectively), whereas greatest reductions are estimated in Portugal (–472% and –394%). Change in mortality rates will range from –25% (Lithuania) to –859% (Estonia), and DALYs’ from –7% (Romania) to
–835% (Estonia).
Conclusions: The number of people with stroke is estimated to increase by 27% between 2017 and 2047 in the EU. Improved life expectancy and prevention strategies will result in increased prevalence/burden of stroke in Europe, particularly in Eastern European countries.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | AS16-021 |
| Pages (from-to) | 5-5 |
| Number of pages | 1 |
| Journal | European Stroke Journal |
| Volume | 4 |
| Issue number | 1_suppl |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 22 May 2019 |
