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Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

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Rupert M. Gladstone, Victoria Lee, Jonathan Rougier, Antony J. Payne, Hartmut Hellmer, Anne Le Brocq, Andrew Shepherd, Tamsin L. Edwards, Jonathan Gregory, Stephen L. Cornford

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)191-199
Number of pages9
JournalEARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCE LETTERS
Volume333-334
Early online date18 May 2012
DOIs
Accepted/In press17 Apr 2012
E-pub ahead of print18 May 2012
Published1 Jun 2012

King's Authors

Abstract

A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B 'business as usual' emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200. yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.

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