Calibration of cohorts of virtual patient heart models using Bayesian history matching

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Previous patient-specific model calibration techniques have treated each patient independently, making the methods expensive for large-scale clinical adoption. In this work, we show how we can reuse simulations to accelerate the patient-specific model calibration pipeline. To represent anatomy, we used a Statistical Shape Model and to represent function, we ran electrophysiological simulations. We study the use of 14 biomarkers to calibrate the model, training one Gaussian Process Emulator (GPE) per biomarker. To fit the models, we followed a Bayesian History Matching (BHM) strategy, wherein each iteration a region of the parameter space is ruled out if the emulation with that set of parameter values produces is “implausible”. We found that without running any extra simulations we can find 87.41% of the non-implausible parameter combinations. Moreover, we showed how reducing the uncertainty of the measurements from 10% to 5% can reduce the final parameter space by 6 orders of magnitude. This innovation allows for a model fitting technique, therefore reducing the computational load of future biomedical studies.
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages20
JournalAnnals of Biomedical Engineering
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 29 Sept 2022


  • Gaussian process emulator, heart model, statistical shape model, uncertainty quantification, in-silico trial, virtual clinical trial


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