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Combining Experts’ Causal Judgments

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Dalal Alrajeh, Hana Chockler, Joseph Y. Halpern

Original languageEnglish
Article number103355
JournalARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Volume288
DOIs
Accepted/In press2 Jul 2020
PublishedNov 2020

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    Uploaded date:17 Jul 2020

    Version:Accepted author manuscript

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Abstract

Consider a policymaker who wants to decide which intervention to perform in order to change a currently undesirable situation. The policymaker has at her disposal a team of experts, each with their own understanding of the causal dependencies between different factors contributing to the outcome. The policymaker has varying degrees of confidence in the experts’ opinions. She wants to combine their opinions in order to decide on the most effective intervention. We formally define the notion of an effective intervention, and then consider how experts’ causal judgments can be combined in order to determine the most effective intervention. We define a notion of two causal models being compatible, and show how compatible causal models can be merged. We then use it as the basis for combining experts’ causal judgments. We also provide a definition of decomposition for causal models to cater for cases when models are incompatible. We illustrate our approach on a number of real-life examples.

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