Costing the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Exploratory Economic Evaluation of Hypothetical Suppression Policy in the United Kingdom

TY - JOUR

T1 - Costing the COVID-19 Pandemic

T2 - An Exploratory Economic Evaluation of Hypothetical Suppression Policy in the United Kingdom

AU - Zala, Darshan

AU - Mosweu, Iris

AU - Critchlow, Simone

AU - Romeo, Renee

AU - McCrone, Paul

PY - 2020/11

Y1 - 2020/11

N2 - Objective: This study aims to cost and calculate the relative cost-effectiveness of the hypothetical suppression policies found in the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team model. Methods: Key population-level disease projections in deaths, intensive care unit bed days, and non–intensive care unit bed days were taken from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report of March 2020, which influenced the decision to introduce suppression policies in the United Kingdom. National income loss estimates were from a study that estimated the impact of a hypothetical pandemic on the UK economy, with sensitivity analyses based on projections that are more recent. Individual quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) loss and costed resource use inputs were taken from published sources. Results: Imperial model projected suppression polices compared to an unmitigated pandemic, even with the most pessimistic national income loss scenarios under suppression (10%), give incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below £50 000 per QALY. Assuming a maximum reduction in national income of 7.75%, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Imperial model projected suppression versus mitigation are below 60 000 per QALY. Conclusions: Results are uncertain and conditional on the accuracy of the Imperial model projections; they are also sensitive to estimates of national income loss. Nevertheless, it would be difficult to claim that the hypothetical Imperial model–projected suppression policies are obviously cost-ineffective relative to the alternatives available. Despite evolving differences between government policy and Imperial model–projected suppression policy, it is hoped this article will provide some early insight into the trade-offs that are involved.

AB - Objective: This study aims to cost and calculate the relative cost-effectiveness of the hypothetical suppression policies found in the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team model. Methods: Key population-level disease projections in deaths, intensive care unit bed days, and non–intensive care unit bed days were taken from the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team report of March 2020, which influenced the decision to introduce suppression policies in the United Kingdom. National income loss estimates were from a study that estimated the impact of a hypothetical pandemic on the UK economy, with sensitivity analyses based on projections that are more recent. Individual quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) loss and costed resource use inputs were taken from published sources. Results: Imperial model projected suppression polices compared to an unmitigated pandemic, even with the most pessimistic national income loss scenarios under suppression (10%), give incremental cost-effectiveness ratios below £50 000 per QALY. Assuming a maximum reduction in national income of 7.75%, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for Imperial model projected suppression versus mitigation are below 60 000 per QALY. Conclusions: Results are uncertain and conditional on the accuracy of the Imperial model projections; they are also sensitive to estimates of national income loss. Nevertheless, it would be difficult to claim that the hypothetical Imperial model–projected suppression policies are obviously cost-ineffective relative to the alternatives available. Despite evolving differences between government policy and Imperial model–projected suppression policy, it is hoped this article will provide some early insight into the trade-offs that are involved.

KW - coronavirus

KW - cost-effectiveness

KW - COVID-19

KW - economic evaluation

KW - mitigation

KW - suppression

KW - United Kingdom

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85089893160&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.jval.2020.07.001

DO - 10.1016/j.jval.2020.07.001

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85089893160

SN - 1098-3015

VL - 23

SP - 1432

EP - 1437

JO - Value in Health

JF - Value in Health

IS - 11

ER -