Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017: mortality progress and targets

TY - JOUR

T1 - Countdown for UK Child Survival 2017

T2 - mortality progress and targets

AU - Viner, Russell M

AU - Ward, Joseph L

AU - Wolfe, Ingrid

N1 - © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

PY - 2018/5

Y1 - 2018/5

N2 - BACKGROUND: The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement.METHODS: We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0-19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.RESULTS: UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1-4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1-4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1-4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1-4 years and 15-19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented.DISCUSSION: UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.

AB - BACKGROUND: The Countdown for UK Child Survival tracks recent UK child mortality trends and makes recommendations for improvement.METHODS: We used data from the WHO World Mortality Database to calculate mortality from 1970 to 2014 for 0-19 year olds in the UK and a comparable group of wealthy countries (the EU15+). We used Poisson regression models to assess the significance of apparent differences. We extrapolated model coefficients to estimate future disparites between the UK and the EU15+ to 2030. We proposed goals and intermediate indicators to track UK mortality in keeping with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.RESULTS: UK infant mortality continues to track in the worst decile of EU15+ mortality with 1-4 year mortality in the worst quartile. Annual reductions in total UK mortality have been significantly lower than the EU15+ since 1990 for infant, postneonatal and 1-4 year mortality. If current trends persist, by 2030 UK infant mortality and 1-4 year mortality could be respectively 180% and 145% of EU15+ median mortality. UK non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality among 1-4 years and 15-19 years persists in the worst quartile. UK injury mortality continues in the best quartile. A framework of goals and indicators for UK child survival and health is presented.DISCUSSION: UK mortality among under 10 years of age continues to diverge from the EU15+ median, and UK NCD mortality remains persistently poor. We propose a set of goals to improve UK childhood survival by 2030 and an annual Countdown mechanism to monitor progress towards these targets.

U2 - 10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184

DO - 10.1136/archdischild-2017-314184

M3 - Article

C2 - 29592902

SN - 0003-9888

VL - 103

SP - 474

EP - 479

JO - Archives of disease in childhood

JF - Archives of disease in childhood

IS - 5

ER -