Desert dunes transformed by end-of-century changes in wind climate

TY - JOUR

T1 - Desert dunes transformed by end-of-century changes in wind climate

AU - Baas, Andreas

AU - Delobel, Lucie

N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.

PY - 2022/10/27

Y1 - 2022/10/27

N2 - Sand dunes in arid regions are conspicuous mobile landforms that require adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect human infrastructure and economic assets from encroachment, and play a substantial role in desertification and atmospheric dust emissions. Here we show how the shape, migration speed and direction of mobile desert dunes globally are projected to change by 2100, in response to sand-moving wind regime shifts associated with climate change under the shared socio-economic pathway SSP5-8.5 (SSP, shared socio-economic pathway) scenario. We find transformations in dune dynamics for many sand seas and dune fields across the Sahara, The Horn of Africa, the Southern Arabian Peninsula, South Asia, China and Australia—as well as an increased potential for sand sea expansion and reactivation of dormant dune fields—linked to climate change alterations in the Hadley circulation, extra-tropical cyclone activity and monsoon systems. These projected changes will affect planning for and management of dune encroachment on transportation infrastructure, industry and urban development in desert regions.

AB - Sand dunes in arid regions are conspicuous mobile landforms that require adaptation and mitigation strategies to protect human infrastructure and economic assets from encroachment, and play a substantial role in desertification and atmospheric dust emissions. Here we show how the shape, migration speed and direction of mobile desert dunes globally are projected to change by 2100, in response to sand-moving wind regime shifts associated with climate change under the shared socio-economic pathway SSP5-8.5 (SSP, shared socio-economic pathway) scenario. We find transformations in dune dynamics for many sand seas and dune fields across the Sahara, The Horn of Africa, the Southern Arabian Peninsula, South Asia, China and Australia—as well as an increased potential for sand sea expansion and reactivation of dormant dune fields—linked to climate change alterations in the Hadley circulation, extra-tropical cyclone activity and monsoon systems. These projected changes will affect planning for and management of dune encroachment on transportation infrastructure, industry and urban development in desert regions.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85140886772&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-022-01507-1

DO - 10.1038/s41558-022-01507-1

M3 - Article

SN - 1758-678X

VL - 12

SP - 999

EP - 1006

JO - Nature climate change

JF - Nature climate change

IS - 11

ER -