Detailed clinical phenotyping and generalisability in prognostic models of functioning in at-risk populations

Marlene Rosen, Linda T. Betz, Natalie Kaiser, Nora Penzel, Dominic Dwyer, Theresa K. Lichtenstein, Frauke Schultze-Lutter, Lana Kambeitz-Ilankovic, Alessandro Bertolino, Stefan Borgwardt, Paolo Brambilla, Rebekka Lencer, Eva Meisenzahl, Christos Pantelis, Raimo K.R. Salokangas, Rachel Upthegrove, Stephen Wood, Stephan Ruhrmann, Nikolaos Koutsouleris, Joseph Kambeitz*

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


Personalised prediction of functional outcomes is a promising approach for targeted early intervention in psychiatry. However, generalisability and resource efficiency of such prognostic models represent challenges. In the PRONIA study (German Clinical Trials Register: DRKS00005042), we demonstrate excellent generalisability of prognostic models in individuals at clinical high-risk for psychosis or with recent-onset depression, and substantial contributions of detailed clinical phenotyping, particularly to the prediction of role functioning. These results indicate that it is possible that functioning prediction models based only on clinical data could be effectively applied in diverse healthcare settings, so that neuroimaging data may not be needed at early assessment stages.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)318-321
Number of pages4
JournalBritish Journal of Psychiatry
Issue number6
Early online date6 Oct 2021
Publication statusPublished - 16 Jun 2022


  • Clinical high-risk for psychosis
  • depression
  • personalized prediction
  • psychosocial functioning
  • translational psychiatry


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