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Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Felicity Fitzgerald, Kevin Wing, Asad Naveed, Musa Gbessay, J C G Ross, Francesco Checchi, Daniel Youkee, Mohamed Boie Jalloh, David E Baion, Ayeshatu Mustapha, Hawanatu Jah, Sandra Lako, Shefali Oza, Sabah Boufkhed, Reynold Feury, Julia Bielicki, Elizabeth Williamson, Diana M Gibb, Nigel Klein, Foday Sahr & 1 more Shunmay Yeung

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)311-319
Number of pages9
JournalEmerging Infectious Diseases
Volume24
Issue number2
DOIs
PublishedFeb 2018

King's Authors

Abstract

We compared children who were positive for Ebola virus disease (EVD) with those who were negative to derive a pediatric EVD predictor (PEP) score. We collected data on all children <13 years of age admitted to 11 Ebola holding units in Sierra Leone during August 2014-March 2015 and performed multivariable logistic regression. Among 1,054 children, 309 (29%) were EVD positive and 697 (66%) EVD negative, with 48 (5%) missing. Contact history, conjunctivitis, and age were the strongest positive predictors for EVD. The PEP score had an area under receiver operating characteristics curve of 0.80. A PEP score of 7/10 was 92% specific and 44% sensitive; 3/10 was 30% specific, 94% sensitive. The PEP score could correctly classify 79%-90% of children and could be used to facilitate triage into risk categories, depending on the sensitivity or specificity required.

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