Do Citizens Respond to Tax Reforms during Conflict? Experimental Evidence from Ukraine

TY - JOUR

T1 - Do Citizens Respond to Tax Reforms during Conflict? Experimental Evidence from Ukraine

AU - Berenson, Marc

AU - Birch, Sarah

N1 - Marc P. Berenson is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Politics and Economics at King’s College London. The author of Taxes and Trust: From Coercion to Compliance in Poland, Russia and Ukraine (Cambridge University Press, 2018), which will be published in an update Ukrainian-language version by Academic Studies Press in late 2025. His research interests include post-communist governance, public administration, state capacity and state-society relations. Sarah Birch is a Professor of Political Science at King's College London. Her research interests include governance, corruption and state capacity.'

PY - 2025/2/26

Y1 - 2025/2/26

N2 - Scholarly research indicates that well-designed tax regimes can increase taxpayer compliance. However, we know little about how effective proposed tax reforms might be during conflict. This paper analyses the impact of hypothetical tax reforms in wartime Ukraine. Ukraine is a state with historically low levels of tax compliance, making it an appropriate context in which to assess the potential benefits of incentive-based reforms designed to improve tax morale. It also has been severely affected by the Russian full-scale invasion that has been taking place since February 2022. Our analysis draws on the results of a survey experiment (N = 1,003) conducted in the summer of 2023, approximately eighteen months following the 2022 full-scale invasion. We find that proposed reforms increase compliance even during wartime.

AB - Scholarly research indicates that well-designed tax regimes can increase taxpayer compliance. However, we know little about how effective proposed tax reforms might be during conflict. This paper analyses the impact of hypothetical tax reforms in wartime Ukraine. Ukraine is a state with historically low levels of tax compliance, making it an appropriate context in which to assess the potential benefits of incentive-based reforms designed to improve tax morale. It also has been severely affected by the Russian full-scale invasion that has been taking place since February 2022. Our analysis draws on the results of a survey experiment (N = 1,003) conducted in the summer of 2023, approximately eighteen months following the 2022 full-scale invasion. We find that proposed reforms increase compliance even during wartime.

KW - War

KW - Ukraine

KW - Tax Reform

KW - Conflict

KW - Citizenship

M3 - Article

SN - 2159-9165

JO - East European Politics

JF - East European Politics

ER -