Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit

Mary Reader; Jonathan Portes; Ruth Patrick

doi:10.1007/s11113-025-09935-5

Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit

Mary Reader, Jonathan Portes^*, Ruth Patrick

^*Corresponding author for this work

Political Economy

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

Abstract

We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

Original language	English
Article number	21
Journal	POPULATION RESEARCH AND POLICY REVIEW
Volume	44
Issue number	2
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-025-09935-5
Publication status	Published - Apr 2025

Keywords

Family size
Fertility
H31
H53
J13
J18
Social assistance
Welfare reform

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10.1007/s11113-025-09935-5

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abstract = "We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.",

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AB - We study the fertility effects of restricting child-related social assistance to the first two children in the family. As of 2017, all third and subsequent children born on or after 6 April 2017 in the UK were made ineligible for approximately 3000 GBP of means-tested child benefits per year. Using a triple difference and regression discontinuity design, we leverage administrative births microdata to identify the impact of the two-child limit on higher-order births. We find little to no decline in higher-order fertility among low-income families, with our estimates indicating at most small elasticities relative to the literature.

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Does Cutting Child Benefits Reduce Fertility in Larger Families? Evidence from the UK’s Two-Child Limit

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Keywords

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