TY - JOUR
T1 - Doomed to repeat the successes of the past
T2 - History is best forgotten for repeated choices with nonstationary payoffs
AU - Rakow, Tim
AU - Miler, Katherine
PY - 2009/10
Y1 - 2009/10
N2 - Many everyday tasks involve repeated choices in which past outcomes are used to estimate payoffs but in which present payoffs may differ from past ones. Two experiments with 10 decision problems employing the decisions-from-feedback paradigm examined the choice between two risky options, wherein the payoff probabilities for one option could change over a sequence of trials. Participants either saw the outcomes associated with each option, or additionally were given a "history" summarizing the outcomes of previous trials. Participants adapted quickly to new problems, but adapted slowly to payoff changes. Providing a history improved initial choices, but had a null or negative impact on later ones - although, appropriately, the summary received less weight in later trials. An associative choice model captured changes in preference, but not initial patterns of choice. The findings emphasize the adaptive value of forgetting in unstable decision environments, but illustrate how providing additional relevant information may hinder this.
AB - Many everyday tasks involve repeated choices in which past outcomes are used to estimate payoffs but in which present payoffs may differ from past ones. Two experiments with 10 decision problems employing the decisions-from-feedback paradigm examined the choice between two risky options, wherein the payoff probabilities for one option could change over a sequence of trials. Participants either saw the outcomes associated with each option, or additionally were given a "history" summarizing the outcomes of previous trials. Participants adapted quickly to new problems, but adapted slowly to payoff changes. Providing a history improved initial choices, but had a null or negative impact on later ones - although, appropriately, the summary received less weight in later trials. An associative choice model captured changes in preference, but not initial patterns of choice. The findings emphasize the adaptive value of forgetting in unstable decision environments, but illustrate how providing additional relevant information may hinder this.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=70349750203&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3758/MC.37.7.985
DO - 10.3758/MC.37.7.985
M3 - Article
C2 - 19744938
AN - SCOPUS:70349750203
SN - 0090-502X
VL - 37
SP - 985
EP - 1000
JO - MEMORY AND COGNITION
JF - MEMORY AND COGNITION
IS - 7
ER -