TY - JOUR
T1 - Dynamic and transdiagnostic risk calculator based on Natural Language Processing for the prediction of psychosis in secondary mental health care
T2 - development and internal-external validation cohort study
AU - Krakowski, Kamil
AU - Oliver, Dominic
AU - Arribas, Maite
AU - Stahl, Daniel
AU - Fusar-Poli, Paolo
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024
PY - 2024/10
Y1 - 2024/10
N2 - Background: Automatic transdiagnostic risk calculators can improve the detection of individuals at risk of psychosis. However, they rely on assessment at a single point in time and can be refined with dynamic modeling techniques that account for changes in risk over time. Methods: We included 158,139 patients (5007 events) who received a first index diagnosis of a nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within electronic health records from the South London and Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust between January 1, 2008, and October 8, 2021. A dynamic Cox landmark model was developed to estimate the 2-year risk of developing psychosis according to the TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariate prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis) statement. The dynamic model included 24 predictors extracted at 9 landmark points (baseline, 0, 6, 12, 24, 30, 36, 42, and 48 months): 3 demographic, 1 clinical, and 20 natural language processing–based symptom and substance use predictors. Performance was compared with a static Cox regression model with all predictors assessed at baseline only and indexed via discrimination (C-index), calibration (calibration plots), and potential clinical utility (decision curves) in internal-external validation. Results: The dynamic model improved discrimination performance from baseline compared with the static model (dynamic: C-index = 0.9; static: C-index = 0.87) and the final landmark point (dynamic: C-index = 0.79; static: C-index = 0.76). The dynamic model was also significantly better calibrated (calibration slope = 0.97–1.1) than the static model at later landmark points (≥24 months). Net benefit was higher for the dynamic than for the static model at later landmark points (≥24 months). Conclusions: These findings suggest that dynamic prediction models can improve the detection of individuals at risk for psychosis in secondary mental health care settings.
AB - Background: Automatic transdiagnostic risk calculators can improve the detection of individuals at risk of psychosis. However, they rely on assessment at a single point in time and can be refined with dynamic modeling techniques that account for changes in risk over time. Methods: We included 158,139 patients (5007 events) who received a first index diagnosis of a nonorganic and nonpsychotic mental disorder within electronic health records from the South London and Maudsley National Health Service Foundation Trust between January 1, 2008, and October 8, 2021. A dynamic Cox landmark model was developed to estimate the 2-year risk of developing psychosis according to the TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariate prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis) statement. The dynamic model included 24 predictors extracted at 9 landmark points (baseline, 0, 6, 12, 24, 30, 36, 42, and 48 months): 3 demographic, 1 clinical, and 20 natural language processing–based symptom and substance use predictors. Performance was compared with a static Cox regression model with all predictors assessed at baseline only and indexed via discrimination (C-index), calibration (calibration plots), and potential clinical utility (decision curves) in internal-external validation. Results: The dynamic model improved discrimination performance from baseline compared with the static model (dynamic: C-index = 0.9; static: C-index = 0.87) and the final landmark point (dynamic: C-index = 0.79; static: C-index = 0.76). The dynamic model was also significantly better calibrated (calibration slope = 0.97–1.1) than the static model at later landmark points (≥24 months). Net benefit was higher for the dynamic than for the static model at later landmark points (≥24 months). Conclusions: These findings suggest that dynamic prediction models can improve the detection of individuals at risk for psychosis in secondary mental health care settings.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85199260042&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.biopsych.2024.05.022
DO - 10.1016/j.biopsych.2024.05.022
M3 - Article
C2 - 38852896
SN - 0006-3223
VL - 96
SP - 604
EP - 614
JO - Biological psychiatry
JF - Biological psychiatry
IS - 7
ER -