Ensemble flood forecasting: A review

H. L. Cloke; F. Pappenberger

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005

Ensemble flood forecasting: A review

H. L. Cloke, F. Pappenberger

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Research output: Contribution to journal › Literature review › peer-review

820 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such 'ensemble flood forecasting' and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the 'added value' of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	613 - 626
Number of pages	14
Journal	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
Volume	375
Issue number	3-4
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005
Publication status	Published - 15 Sept 2009

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10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005

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title = "Ensemble flood forecasting: A review",

abstract = "Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such 'ensemble flood forecasting' and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the 'added value' of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.",

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AB - Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such 'ensemble flood forecasting' and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the 'added value' of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

U2 - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005

DO - 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005

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JO - JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

JF - JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY

IS - 3-4

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Ensemble flood forecasting: A review

Abstract

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