TY - JOUR
T1 - Ensemble predictions and perceptions of risk, uncertainty, and error in flood forecasting
AU - Demeritt, David
AU - Cloke, Hannah
AU - Pappenberger, Florian
AU - Thielen, Jutta
AU - Bartholmes, Jens
AU - Ramos, Maria Helena
PY - 2007/9/26
Y1 - 2007/9/26
N2 - Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent 'epistemic cultures' for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.
AB - Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization, there are a number of international initiatives to promote the development and use of so-called ensemble prediction systems (EPS) for flood forecasting. The campaign to apply these meteorological techniques to flood forecasting raises important questions about how the probabilistic information these systems provide can be used for what in operational terms is typically a binary decision of whether or not to issue a flood warning. To explore these issues, we report on the results of a series of focus group discussions conducted with operational flood forecasters from across Europe on behalf of the European Flood Alert System. Working in small groups to simulate operational conditions, forecasters engaged in a series of carefully designed forecasting exercises using various different combinations of actual data from real events. Focus group data was supplemented by a follow-up questionnaire survey exploring how flood forecasters understand risk, uncertainty, and error. Results suggest that flood forecasters may not instinctively use ensemble predictions in the way that promoters of EPS perhaps think they should. The paper concludes by exploring the implications of these divergent 'epistemic cultures' for efforts to apply ensemble prediction techniques developed in the context of weather forecasting to the rather different one of flood forecasting.
KW - Ensemble forecasting
KW - Epistemic cultures
KW - European Flood Alert System
KW - Risk communication
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=34548826514&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.001
DO - 10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.05.001
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:34548826514
SN - 1747-7891
VL - 7
SP - 115
EP - 127
JO - Environmental Hazards
JF - Environmental Hazards
IS - 2
ER -
