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Estimating the scale and geography of global poverty now and in the future: How much difference do method and assumptions make?

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Peter Edward, Andy Sumner

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)67-82
Early online date10 Feb 2014
Accepted/In press21 Dec 2013
E-pub ahead of print10 Feb 2014
PublishedJun 2014

King's Authors


Estimates of the historic and future scale and location or “geography” of global poverty by income/expenditure have a long and contentious history. In recent projections made on global poverty, methods and assumptions vary so widely it is impossible to compare studies in a systematic way even on their estimates of current poverty. In light of this, we discuss the methodological issues arising and use a custom-built model to provide a new, consistent set of long-run estimates of global poverty to show the impact of different methods and assumptions on the scale and location of global poverty.

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