Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking: Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise

TY - BOOK

T1 - Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking

T2 - Learning Lessons from an Era of Surprise

A2 - Meyer, Christoph

A2 - Michaels, Eva

A2 - Ikani, Nikki

A2 - Guttmann, Aviva

A2 - Goodman, Michael

PY - 2022/10/31

Y1 - 2022/10/31

N2 - This book develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. It is the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers government intelligence assessments, as well as diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how organisational leaders received these assessments. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities. Drawing on insights and chapters provided by former senior officials, the book identifies lessons to learn from European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

AB - This book develops a new framework for conducting postmortems guided by a normative model of anticipatory foreign policy. It is the first assessment of the performance of three leading European polities in providing estimative intelligence during an era of surprise. The comparative analysis focuses on how the UK, the EU and Germany handled three cases of major surprises: the Arab uprisings, the rise to power of the Islamic State (ISIS), and the Russian annexation of Crimea. It considers government intelligence assessments, as well as diplomatic reporting and expert open sources and how organisational leaders received these assessments. The book tests and develops new theories about the causes of strategic surprises, going beyond a common focus on intelligence versus policy failures to identify challenges and factors that cut across analyst and decision-maker communities. Drawing on insights and chapters provided by former senior officials, the book identifies lessons to learn from European polities to better anticipate and prepare for future surprises.

KW - Intelligence

KW - surprise

KW - warning

KW - foresight

KW - Forecasting

KW - foreign policy

KW - conflict

KW - Arab spring

KW - Ukraine crisis

KW - UK foreign policy

KW - German foreign policy

KW - EU foreign policy

M3 - Book

SN - 9781399505512

BT - Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking

PB - Edinburgh: Edinburgh University Press

CY - Edinburgh

ER -