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Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales

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Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales. / Vandoros, Sotiris.

In: Social Science & Medicine, Vol. 258, 113101, 08.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Vandoros, S 2020, 'Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales', Social Science & Medicine, vol. 258, 113101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113101

APA

Vandoros, S. (2020). Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales. Social Science & Medicine, 258, [113101]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113101

Vancouver

Vandoros S. Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales. Social Science & Medicine. 2020 Aug;258. 113101. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113101

Author

Vandoros, Sotiris. / Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales. In: Social Science & Medicine. 2020 ; Vol. 258.

Bibtex Download

@article{ac2b3f79fddd42568bdca30ab8bed403,
title = "Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales",
abstract = "The Covid-19 pandemic has claimed many lives in the UK and globally. The objective of this paper is to study whether the number of deaths not registered as Covid-19-related has increased compared to what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. Reasons behind this might include Covid-19 underreporting, avoiding visits to hospitals or GPs, and the effects of the lockdown. I used weekly ONS data on the number of deaths in England and Wales that did not officially involve Covid-19 over the period 2015–2020. Simply observing trends is not sufficient as spikes in deaths may occasionally occur. I thus followed a difference-in-differences econometric approach to study whether there was a relative increase in deaths not registered as Covid-19-related during the pandemic, compared to a control. Results suggest that there were an additional 968 weekly deaths that officially did not involve Covid-19, compared to what would have otherwise been expected. It is possible that some people are dying from Covid-19 without being diagnosed, and/or that there are excess deaths due to other causes as a result of the pandemic. Analysing the cause of death for any excess non-covid-19 deaths will shed light upon the reasons for the increase in such deaths and will help design appropriate policy responses to save lives.",
keywords = "Covid-19, Excess mortality, Lockdown, Spillover effects, Underreporting",
author = "Sotiris Vandoros",
year = "2020",
month = aug,
doi = "https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113101",
language = "English",
volume = "258",
journal = "Social Science & Medicine",
issn = "0277-9536",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Excess Mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic: Early evidence from England and Wales

AU - Vandoros, Sotiris

PY - 2020/8

Y1 - 2020/8

N2 - The Covid-19 pandemic has claimed many lives in the UK and globally. The objective of this paper is to study whether the number of deaths not registered as Covid-19-related has increased compared to what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. Reasons behind this might include Covid-19 underreporting, avoiding visits to hospitals or GPs, and the effects of the lockdown. I used weekly ONS data on the number of deaths in England and Wales that did not officially involve Covid-19 over the period 2015–2020. Simply observing trends is not sufficient as spikes in deaths may occasionally occur. I thus followed a difference-in-differences econometric approach to study whether there was a relative increase in deaths not registered as Covid-19-related during the pandemic, compared to a control. Results suggest that there were an additional 968 weekly deaths that officially did not involve Covid-19, compared to what would have otherwise been expected. It is possible that some people are dying from Covid-19 without being diagnosed, and/or that there are excess deaths due to other causes as a result of the pandemic. Analysing the cause of death for any excess non-covid-19 deaths will shed light upon the reasons for the increase in such deaths and will help design appropriate policy responses to save lives.

AB - The Covid-19 pandemic has claimed many lives in the UK and globally. The objective of this paper is to study whether the number of deaths not registered as Covid-19-related has increased compared to what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. Reasons behind this might include Covid-19 underreporting, avoiding visits to hospitals or GPs, and the effects of the lockdown. I used weekly ONS data on the number of deaths in England and Wales that did not officially involve Covid-19 over the period 2015–2020. Simply observing trends is not sufficient as spikes in deaths may occasionally occur. I thus followed a difference-in-differences econometric approach to study whether there was a relative increase in deaths not registered as Covid-19-related during the pandemic, compared to a control. Results suggest that there were an additional 968 weekly deaths that officially did not involve Covid-19, compared to what would have otherwise been expected. It is possible that some people are dying from Covid-19 without being diagnosed, and/or that there are excess deaths due to other causes as a result of the pandemic. Analysing the cause of death for any excess non-covid-19 deaths will shed light upon the reasons for the increase in such deaths and will help design appropriate policy responses to save lives.

KW - Covid-19

KW - Excess mortality

KW - Lockdown

KW - Spillover effects

KW - Underreporting

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085927905&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113101

DO - https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2020.113101

M3 - Article

VL - 258

JO - Social Science & Medicine

JF - Social Science & Medicine

SN - 0277-9536

M1 - 113101

ER -

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