@article{0b0c81f6d41e43cfabfe4ae5c77d3b5d,
title = "Factors predicting the transition from acute to persistent pain in people with 'sciatica': the FORECAST longitudinal prognostic factor cohort study protocol",
abstract = "Introduction Sciatica is a common condition and is associated with higher levels of pain, disability, poorer quality of life, and increased use of health resources compared with low back pain alone. Although many patients recover, a third develop persistent sciatica symptoms. It remains unclear, why some patients develop persistent sciatica as none of the traditionally considered clinical parameters (eg, symptom severity, routine MRI) are consistent prognostic factors. The FORECAST study (factors predicting the transition from acute to persistent pain in people with 'sciatica') will take a different approach by exploring mechanism-based subgroups in patients with sciatica and investigate whether a mechanism-based approach can identify factors that predict pain persistence in patients with sciatica. Methods and analysis We will perform a prospective longitudinal cohort study including 180 people with acute/subacute sciatica. N=168 healthy participants will provide normative data. A detailed set of variables will be assessed within 3 months after sciatica onset. This will include self-reported sensory and psychosocial profiles, quantitative sensory testing, blood inflammatory markers and advanced neuroimaging. We will determine outcome with the Sciatica Bothersomeness Index and a Numerical Pain Rating Scale for leg pain severity at 3 and 12 months. We will use principal component analysis followed by clustering methods to identify subgroups. Univariate associations and machine learning methods optimised for high dimensional small data sets will be used to identify the most powerful predictors and model selection/accuracy. The results will provide crucial information about the pathophysiological drivers of sciatica symptoms and may identify prognostic factors of pain persistence. Ethics and dissemination The FORECAST study has received ethical approval (South Central Oxford C, 18/SC/0263). The dissemination strategy will be guided by our patient and public engagement activities and will include peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, social media and podcasts.",
keywords = "Chronic Pain, Neurological injury, Neurological pain, Neurology, Rehabilitation medicine, Rheumatology",
author = "Schmid, {Annina B.} and Lucy Ridgway and Louise Hailey and Mohamed Tachrount and Fay Probert and Martin, {Kathryn R.} and Whitney Scott and Geert Crombez and Christine Price and Claire Robinson and Soraya Koushesh and Sarim Ather and Brigitte Tampin and Marco Barbero and Daniel Nanz and Stuart Clare and Jeremy Fairbank and Georgios Baskozos",
note = "Funding Information: The authors wish to thank all participants of the feasibility study who have helped shape the protocol of the FORECAST study. The input of Prof Irene Tracey in the design of the study is also gratefully acknowledged. This project is funded by UKRI and Versus Arthritis as part of the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (SPF) Advanced Pain Discovery Platform (APDP), a co-funded initiative by UKRI (MRC, BBSRC, ESRC), Versus Arthritis, the Medical Research Foundation and Eli Lilly and Company Ltd (Grant MR/W027003/1). ABS is supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical Career Development Fellowship (222101/Z/20/Z). BT received funding to collect normative QST data from the Government of Western Australia, Department of Health and the Raine Medical Research Foundation, the Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital and Osborne Park Healthcare Group Research Advisory Committee Grant (RAC 2016-17/015) and the Charlies Foundation for Research, Arthritis Australia (The Eventide Homes Grant) and School of Physiotherapy and Exercise Science, Curtin University. WS is partly funded through the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King's College London. FP is funded by a Dorothy Hodgkin Career Development Fellowship in Chemistry in association with Somerville College. GB is supported by the Wellcome Trust (223149/Z/21/Z) and Diabetes UK (19/0005984). GC and KRM are partly funded by UKRI and Versus Arthritis as part of the Advanced Pain Discovery Platform (APDP) PAINSTORM (MR/W002388/1). LH was supported by a preparatory research fellowship from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre Oxford, based at Oxford University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford. The research is supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. The UKRI and Versus Arhthritis (APDP) are the major funders of FORECAST. All other funders provided either some people support, or funded projects with legacy data that we reuse. Funding Information: This project is funded by UKRI and Versus Arthritis as part of the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (SPF) Advanced Pain Discovery Platform (APDP), a co-funded initiative by UKRI (MRC, BBSRC, ESRC), Versus Arthritis, the Medical Research Foundation and Eli Lilly and Company Ltd (Grant MR/W027003/1). ABS is supported by a Wellcome Trust Clinical Career Development Fellowship (222101/Z/20/Z). BT received funding to collect normative QST data from the Government of Western Australia, Department of Health and the Raine Medical Research Foundation, the Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital and Osborne Park Healthcare Group Research Advisory Committee Grant (RAC 2016-17/015) and the Charlies Foundation for Research, Arthritis Australia (The Eventide Homes Grant) and School of Physiotherapy and Exercise Science, Curtin University. WS is partly funded through the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at the South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King{\textquoteright}s College London. FP is funded by a Dorothy Hodgkin Career Development Fellowship in Chemistry in association with Somerville College. GB is supported by the Wellcome Trust (223149/Z/21/Z) and Diabetes UK (19/0005984). GC and KRM are partly funded by UKRI and Versus Arthritis as part of the Advanced Pain Discovery Platform (APDP) PAINSTORM (MR/W002388/1). LH was supported by a preparatory research fellowship from the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre Oxford, based at Oxford University Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, Oxford. The research is supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Health Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. The UKRI and Versus Arhthritis (APDP) are the major funders of FORECAST. All other funders provided either some people support, or funded projects with legacy data that we reuse. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.",
year = "2023",
month = apr,
day = "5",
doi = "10.1136/bmjopen-2023-072832",
language = "English",
volume = "13",
journal = "BMJ Open",
issn = "2044-6055",
publisher = "BMJ Publishing Group",
number = "4",
}