Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence: assessing the performance of a risk score for future onset of depression in an independent Brazilian sample

Graccielle R. Cunha; Arthur Caye; Pedro Pan; Helen Fisher; Rivka Pereira; Carolina Ziebold; Rodrigo Bressan; Brandon A Kohrt; Valeria Mondelli; Christian Kieling; Ary Gadelha

doi:10.47626/1516-4446-2022-2775

Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence: assessing the performance of a risk score for future onset of depression in an independent Brazilian sample

Graccielle R. Cunha, Arthur Caye, Pedro Pan, Helen Fisher, Rivka Pereira, Carolina Ziebold, Rodrigo Bressan, Brandon A Kohrt, Valeria Mondelli, Christian Kieling, Ary Gadelha

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objective: The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) was recently developed in Brazil using data from the Pelotas 1993 Birth Cohort to estimate the individualized probability of developing depression in adolescence. This model includes 11 sociodemographic variables and has been assessed in longitudinal studies from four other countries. We aimed to test the performance of IDEA-RS in an independent, community-based, school-attending sample within the same country: the Brazilian High-Risk Cohort. Methods: Standard external validation, refitted, and case mix-corrected models were used to predict depression among 1442 youth followed from a mean age of 13.5 years at baseline to 17.7 years at follow-up, using probabilities calculated with IDEA-RS coefficients. Results: The area under the curve was 0.65 for standard external validation, 0.70 for the case mix-corrected model, and 0.69 for the refitted model, with discrimination consistently above chance for predicting depression in the new dataset. There was some degree of miscalibration, corrected by model refitting (calibration-in-the-large reduced from 0.77 to 0). Conclusion: IDEA-RS was able to parse individuals with higher or lower probability of developing depression beyond chance in an independent Brazilian sample. Further steps should include model improvements and additional studies in populations with high levels of subclinical symptoms to improve clinical decision making.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	242-248
Number of pages	7
Journal	Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry
Volume	45
Issue number	3
Early online date	26 Apr 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.47626/1516-4446-2022-2775
Publication status	Published - 2023

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Cunha, G. R., Caye, A., Pan, P., Fisher, H., Pereira, R., Ziebold, C., Bressan, R., Kohrt, B. A., Mondelli, V., Kieling, C., & Gadelha, A. (2023). Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence: assessing the performance of a risk score for future onset of depression in an independent Brazilian sample. Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry, 45(3), 242-248. https://doi.org/10.47626/1516-4446-2022-2775

@article{f4f90ce1a2244b3ea2d531a9fb8ba043,

title = "Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence: assessing the performance of a risk score for future onset of depression in an independent Brazilian sample",

abstract = "Objective: The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) was recently developed in Brazil using data from the Pelotas 1993 Birth Cohort to estimate the individualized probability of developing depression in adolescence. This model includes 11 sociodemographic variables and has been assessed in longitudinal studies from four other countries. We aimed to test the performance of IDEA-RS in an independent, community-based, school-attending sample within the same country: the Brazilian High-Risk Cohort. Methods: Standard external validation, refitted, and case mix-corrected models were used to predict depression among 1442 youth followed from a mean age of 13.5 years at baseline to 17.7 years at follow-up, using probabilities calculated with IDEA-RS coefficients. Results: The area under the curve was 0.65 for standard external validation, 0.70 for the case mix-corrected model, and 0.69 for the refitted model, with discrimination consistently above chance for predicting depression in the new dataset. There was some degree of miscalibration, corrected by model refitting (calibration-in-the-large reduced from 0.77 to 0). Conclusion: IDEA-RS was able to parse individuals with higher or lower probability of developing depression beyond chance in an independent Brazilian sample. Further steps should include model improvements and additional studies in populations with high levels of subclinical symptoms to improve clinical decision making.",

author = "Cunha, {Graccielle R.} and Arthur Caye and Pedro Pan and Helen Fisher and Rivka Pereira and Carolina Ziebold and Rodrigo Bressan and Kohrt, {Brandon A} and Valeria Mondelli and Christian Kieling and Ary Gadelha",

note = "Funding Information: This study was supported by the Instituto Nacional de Psiquiatria do Desenvolvimento para Crianc¸as e Adoles-centes (INPD), funded by Conselho Nacional de Desen-volvimento Cient{\'i}fico e Tecnol{\'o}gico (CNPq; grant 465550/2014-2) and Fundac¸{\~a}o de Amparo {\`a} Pesquisa do Estado de S{\~a}o Paulo (FAPESP; grant 2014/50917-0 and 2021/05332-8). This study was funded in part by the Coordenac¸{\~a}o de Aperfeic¸oamento de Pessoal de N{\'i}vel Superior (CAPES; Finance Code 001). The IDEA project was funded by an MQ Brighter Futures grant (MQBF/1 IDEA). Additional support was provided by the UK Medical Research Council (MC_PC_MR/R019460/1) and the Academy of Medical Sciences (GCRFNG_100281) under the Global Challenges Research Fund. HLF was partly supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Centre for Society and Mental Health at King{\textquoteright}s College London (ES/S012567/1). CZ received a Young Talent Research Scholarship from CAPES (grant 88887.575201/2020-00). BAK and CK are supported by the U.S. National Institute of Mental Health (R21MH124072). CK is a CNPq researcher and an Academy of Medical Sciences Newton Advanced Fellow. VM was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King{\textquoteright}s College London. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, the Department of Health and Social Care, the ESRC, or King{\textquoteright}s College London. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023, Associacao Brasileira de Psiquiatria. All rights reserved.",

year = "2023",

doi = "10.47626/1516-4446-2022-2775",

language = "English",

volume = "45",

pages = "242--248",

journal = "Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry",

number = "3",

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Cunha, GR, Caye, A, Pan, P, Fisher, H, Pereira, R, Ziebold, C, Bressan, R, Kohrt, BA, Mondelli, V, Kieling, C & Gadelha, A 2023, 'Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence: assessing the performance of a risk score for future onset of depression in an independent Brazilian sample', Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry, vol. 45, no. 3, pp. 242-248. https://doi.org/10.47626/1516-4446-2022-2775

TY - JOUR

T1 - Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence: assessing the performance of a risk score for future onset of depression in an independent Brazilian sample

AU - Cunha, Graccielle R.

AU - Caye, Arthur

AU - Pan, Pedro

AU - Fisher, Helen

AU - Pereira, Rivka

AU - Ziebold, Carolina

AU - Bressan, Rodrigo

AU - Kohrt, Brandon A

AU - Mondelli, Valeria

AU - Kieling, Christian

AU - Gadelha, Ary

N1 - Funding Information: This study was supported by the Instituto Nacional de Psiquiatria do Desenvolvimento para Crianc¸as e Adoles-centes (INPD), funded by Conselho Nacional de Desen-volvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq; grant 465550/2014-2) and Fundac¸ão de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP; grant 2014/50917-0 and 2021/05332-8). This study was funded in part by the Coordenac¸ão de Aperfeic¸oamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES; Finance Code 001). The IDEA project was funded by an MQ Brighter Futures grant (MQBF/1 IDEA). Additional support was provided by the UK Medical Research Council (MC_PC_MR/R019460/1) and the Academy of Medical Sciences (GCRFNG_100281) under the Global Challenges Research Fund. HLF was partly supported by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Centre for Society and Mental Health at King’s College London (ES/S012567/1). CZ received a Young Talent Research Scholarship from CAPES (grant 88887.575201/2020-00). BAK and CK are supported by the U.S. National Institute of Mental Health (R21MH124072). CK is a CNPq researcher and an Academy of Medical Sciences Newton Advanced Fellow. VM was supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre at South London and Maudsley NHS Foundation Trust and King’s College London. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the National Health Service, the NIHR, the Department of Health and Social Care, the ESRC, or King’s College London. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, Associacao Brasileira de Psiquiatria. All rights reserved.

PY - 2023

Y1 - 2023

N2 - Objective: The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) was recently developed in Brazil using data from the Pelotas 1993 Birth Cohort to estimate the individualized probability of developing depression in adolescence. This model includes 11 sociodemographic variables and has been assessed in longitudinal studies from four other countries. We aimed to test the performance of IDEA-RS in an independent, community-based, school-attending sample within the same country: the Brazilian High-Risk Cohort. Methods: Standard external validation, refitted, and case mix-corrected models were used to predict depression among 1442 youth followed from a mean age of 13.5 years at baseline to 17.7 years at follow-up, using probabilities calculated with IDEA-RS coefficients. Results: The area under the curve was 0.65 for standard external validation, 0.70 for the case mix-corrected model, and 0.69 for the refitted model, with discrimination consistently above chance for predicting depression in the new dataset. There was some degree of miscalibration, corrected by model refitting (calibration-in-the-large reduced from 0.77 to 0). Conclusion: IDEA-RS was able to parse individuals with higher or lower probability of developing depression beyond chance in an independent Brazilian sample. Further steps should include model improvements and additional studies in populations with high levels of subclinical symptoms to improve clinical decision making.

AB - Objective: The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) was recently developed in Brazil using data from the Pelotas 1993 Birth Cohort to estimate the individualized probability of developing depression in adolescence. This model includes 11 sociodemographic variables and has been assessed in longitudinal studies from four other countries. We aimed to test the performance of IDEA-RS in an independent, community-based, school-attending sample within the same country: the Brazilian High-Risk Cohort. Methods: Standard external validation, refitted, and case mix-corrected models were used to predict depression among 1442 youth followed from a mean age of 13.5 years at baseline to 17.7 years at follow-up, using probabilities calculated with IDEA-RS coefficients. Results: The area under the curve was 0.65 for standard external validation, 0.70 for the case mix-corrected model, and 0.69 for the refitted model, with discrimination consistently above chance for predicting depression in the new dataset. There was some degree of miscalibration, corrected by model refitting (calibration-in-the-large reduced from 0.77 to 0). Conclusion: IDEA-RS was able to parse individuals with higher or lower probability of developing depression beyond chance in an independent Brazilian sample. Further steps should include model improvements and additional studies in populations with high levels of subclinical symptoms to improve clinical decision making.

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U2 - 10.47626/1516-4446-2022-2775

DO - 10.47626/1516-4446-2022-2775

M3 - Article

VL - 45

SP - 242

EP - 248

JO - Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry

JF - Brazilian Journal of Psychiatry

IS - 3

ER -

Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence: assessing the performance of a risk score for future onset of depression in an independent Brazilian sample

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