Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland

CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium; Hannah Whittaker; Adriana Kramer Fiala Machado; Sara Hatam; Sarah Cook; Sean Scully; Hywel Turner T. Evans; Thomas Bolton; Constantinos Kallis; John Busby; Liam G. Heaney; Aziz Sheikh; Jennifer K. Quint; Alastair Proudfoot; Andrew Constantine; Dan Jones; Krishnaraj Rathod; Nida Ahmed; Richard Fitzgerald; Dan O’Connell; Rony Arafin; Sonya Babu-Narayan; Zainab Karim; Jon Shelton; Martina Slapkova; Rosie Hinchliffe; Shane Johnson; Renin Toms; Julia Townson; Tasanee Braithwaite; Abdel Douiri; Adejoke Oluyase; Alexandru Dregan; Amy Ronaldson; Anna Bone; Ben Bray; Charles Wolfe; Daniel Bromage; Elena Nikiphorou; Emeka Chukwusa; Irene Higginson; Katherine Sleeman; Laia Becares; Matthew O’Connell; Mevhibe Hocaoglu; Rachel Cripps; Richard Killick; Vasa Curcin; Vahé Nafilyan; Swapna Mandal; Lorna Fraser

doi:10.1136/thorax-2024-222699

Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland

CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium, Hannah Whittaker^*, Adriana Kramer Fiala Machado, Sara Hatam, Sarah Cook, Sean Scully, Hywel Turner T. Evans, Thomas Bolton, Constantinos Kallis, John Busby, Liam G. Heaney, Aziz Sheikh, Jennifer K. Quint, Alastair Proudfoot, Andrew Constantine, Dan Jones, Krishnaraj Rathod, Nida Ahmed, Richard Fitzgerald, Dan O’ConnellRony Arafin, Sonya Babu-Narayan, Zainab Karim, Jon Shelton, Martina Slapkova, Rosie Hinchliffe, Shane Johnson, Renin Toms, Julia Townson, Tasanee Braithwaite, Abdel Douiri, Adejoke Oluyase, Alexandru Dregan, Amy Ronaldson, Anna Bone, Ben Bray, Charles Wolfe, Daniel Bromage, Elena Nikiphorou, Emeka Chukwusa, Irene Higginson, Katherine Sleeman, Laia Becares, Matthew O’Connell, Mevhibe Hocaoglu, Rachel Cripps, Richard Killick, Vasa Curcin, Vahé Nafilyan, Swapna Mandal, Lorna Fraser

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

6 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Background We describe the epidemiology of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) from 2004 to 2023 in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (NI) using a harmonised approach. Methods Data from the National Health Service England (NHSE), Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, DataLoch in South-East Scotland and the Honest Broker Service in NI were used. A harmonised approach to COPD, asthma and ILD case definitions, study designs and study populations across the four nations was performed. Age-sex-standardised incidence rates and point prevalence were calculated between 2004 and 2023 depending on data availability. Logistic and negative binomial regression compared incidence and prevalence rates between the start and end of each study period. Linear extrapolation projected incidence rates between 2020 and 2023 to illustrate how observed and projected rates differed. Results Incidence rates were lower in 2019 versus 2005 for asthma (England: incidence rate ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.90; Wales: 0.66, 0.65 to 0.68; Scotland: 0.67, 0.64 to 0.71; NI: 0.84, 0.81 to 0.86), COPD (England: 0.83, 0.82 to 0.85; Wales: 0.67, 0.65 to 0.69) and higher for ILD (England: 3.27, 3.05 to 3.50; Wales: 1.39, 1.27 to 1.53; Scotland: 1.63, 1.36 to 1.95; NI: 3.03, 2.47 to 3.72). In NHSE, the incidence of asthma was similar in June 2023 versus November 2019, but lower for COPD and higher for ILD. Prevalence of asthma in 2019 in England, Wales, Scotland and NI was 9.7%, 15.9%, 13.2% and 7.0%, respectively, for COPD 4.5%, 5.1%, 4.4% and 3.0%, and for ILD 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.3%. Projected incidence rates were 2.8, 3.4 and 1.8 times lower for asthma, COPD and ILD compared with observed rates at the height of the pandemic. Interpretation Asthma, COPD and ILD affect over 10 million people across the four nations, and a substantial number of diagnoses were missed during the pandemic.

Original language	English
Article number	10.1136/thorax-2024-222699
Pages (from-to)	466-477
Number of pages	12
Journal	Thorax
Volume	80
Issue number	7
Early online date	8 Apr 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1136/thorax-2024-222699
Publication status	Published - 1 Jul 2025

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Access to Document

10.1136/thorax-2024-222699Licence: CC BY

Incidence and prevalence of asthma_WHITTAKER_Publishedonline8April2025_GOLD_VoR (CC BY)Final published version, 1.51 MBLicence: CC BY

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this

CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium, Whittaker, H., Machado, A. K. F., Hatam, S., Cook, S., Scully, S., Evans, H. T. T., Bolton, T., Kallis, C., Busby, J., Heaney, L. G., Sheikh, A., Quint, J. K., Proudfoot, A., Constantine, A., Jones, D., Rathod, K., Ahmed, N., Fitzgerald, R., ... Fraser, L. (2025). Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland. Thorax, 80(7), 466-477. Article 10.1136/thorax-2024-222699. https://doi.org/10.1136/thorax-2024-222699

CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium ; Whittaker, Hannah ; Machado, Adriana Kramer Fiala et al. / Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023 : harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland. In: Thorax. 2025 ; Vol. 80, No. 7. pp. 466-477.

@article{706e218284e24ec3b7248d114b8d514b,

title = "Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland",

abstract = "Background We describe the epidemiology of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) from 2004 to 2023 in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (NI) using a harmonised approach. Methods Data from the National Health Service England (NHSE), Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, DataLoch in South-East Scotland and the Honest Broker Service in NI were used. A harmonised approach to COPD, asthma and ILD case definitions, study designs and study populations across the four nations was performed. Age-sex-standardised incidence rates and point prevalence were calculated between 2004 and 2023 depending on data availability. Logistic and negative binomial regression compared incidence and prevalence rates between the start and end of each study period. Linear extrapolation projected incidence rates between 2020 and 2023 to illustrate how observed and projected rates differed. Results Incidence rates were lower in 2019 versus 2005 for asthma (England: incidence rate ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.90; Wales: 0.66, 0.65 to 0.68; Scotland: 0.67, 0.64 to 0.71; NI: 0.84, 0.81 to 0.86), COPD (England: 0.83, 0.82 to 0.85; Wales: 0.67, 0.65 to 0.69) and higher for ILD (England: 3.27, 3.05 to 3.50; Wales: 1.39, 1.27 to 1.53; Scotland: 1.63, 1.36 to 1.95; NI: 3.03, 2.47 to 3.72). In NHSE, the incidence of asthma was similar in June 2023 versus November 2019, but lower for COPD and higher for ILD. Prevalence of asthma in 2019 in England, Wales, Scotland and NI was 9.7%, 15.9%, 13.2% and 7.0%, respectively, for COPD 4.5%, 5.1%, 4.4% and 3.0%, and for ILD 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.3%. Projected incidence rates were 2.8, 3.4 and 1.8 times lower for asthma, COPD and ILD compared with observed rates at the height of the pandemic. Interpretation Asthma, COPD and ILD affect over 10 million people across the four nations, and a substantial number of diagnoses were missed during the pandemic.",

author = "{CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium} and Hannah Whittaker and Machado, {Adriana Kramer Fiala} and Sara Hatam and Sarah Cook and Sean Scully and Evans, {Hywel Turner T.} and Thomas Bolton and Constantinos Kallis and John Busby and Heaney, {Liam G.} and Aziz Sheikh and Quint, {Jennifer K.} and Alastair Proudfoot and Andrew Constantine and Dan Jones and Krishnaraj Rathod and Nida Ahmed and Richard Fitzgerald and Dan O{\textquoteright}Connell and Rony Arafin and Sonya Babu-Narayan and Zainab Karim and Jon Shelton and Martina Slapkova and Rosie Hinchliffe and Shane Johnson and Renin Toms and Julia Townson and Tasanee Braithwaite and Abdel Douiri and Adejoke Oluyase and Alexandru Dregan and Amy Ronaldson and Anna Bone and Ben Bray and Charles Wolfe and Daniel Bromage and Elena Nikiphorou and Emeka Chukwusa and Irene Higginson and Katherine Sleeman and Laia Becares and Matthew O{\textquoteright}Connell and Mevhibe Hocaoglu and Rachel Cripps and Richard Killick and Vasa Curcin and Vah{\'e} Nafilyan and Swapna Mandal and Lorna Fraser",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2025. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ Group.",

year = "2025",

month = jul,

day = "1",

doi = "10.1136/thorax-2024-222699",

language = "English",

volume = "80",

pages = "466--477",

journal = "Thorax",

issn = "0040-6376",

publisher = "BMJ Publishing Group",

number = "7",

}

CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium, Whittaker, H, Machado, AKF, Hatam, S, Cook, S, Scully, S, Evans, HTT, Bolton, T, Kallis, C, Busby, J, Heaney, LG, Sheikh, A, Quint, JK, Proudfoot, A, Constantine, A, Jones, D, Rathod, K, Ahmed, N, Fitzgerald, R, O’Connell, D, Arafin, R, Babu-Narayan, S, Karim, Z, Shelton, J, Slapkova, M, Hinchliffe, R, Johnson, S, Toms, R, Townson, J, Braithwaite, T , Douiri, A , Oluyase, A , Dregan, A , Ronaldson, A , Bone, A , Bray, B , Wolfe, C , Bromage, D , Nikiphorou, E , Chukwusa, E , Higginson, I , Sleeman, K , Becares, L , O’Connell, M , Hocaoglu, M , Cripps, R , Killick, R , Curcin, V , Nafilyan, V , Mandal, S & Fraser, L 2025, 'Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland', Thorax, vol. 80, no. 7, 10.1136/thorax-2024-222699, pp. 466-477. https://doi.org/10.1136/thorax-2024-222699

Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland. / CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium; Whittaker, Hannah; Machado, Adriana Kramer Fiala et al.
In: Thorax, Vol. 80, No. 7, 10.1136/thorax-2024-222699, 01.07.2025, p. 466-477.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023

T2 - harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland

AU - CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium

AU - Whittaker, Hannah

AU - Machado, Adriana Kramer Fiala

AU - Hatam, Sara

AU - Cook, Sarah

AU - Scully, Sean

AU - Evans, Hywel Turner T.

AU - Bolton, Thomas

AU - Kallis, Constantinos

AU - Busby, John

AU - Heaney, Liam G.

AU - Sheikh, Aziz

AU - Quint, Jennifer K.

AU - Proudfoot, Alastair

AU - Constantine, Andrew

AU - Jones, Dan

AU - Rathod, Krishnaraj

AU - Ahmed, Nida

AU - Fitzgerald, Richard

AU - O’Connell, Dan

AU - Arafin, Rony

AU - Babu-Narayan, Sonya

AU - Karim, Zainab

AU - Shelton, Jon

AU - Slapkova, Martina

AU - Hinchliffe, Rosie

AU - Johnson, Shane

AU - Toms, Renin

AU - Townson, Julia

AU - Braithwaite, Tasanee

AU - Douiri, Abdel

AU - Oluyase, Adejoke

AU - Dregan, Alexandru

AU - Ronaldson, Amy

AU - Bone, Anna

AU - Bray, Ben

AU - Wolfe, Charles

AU - Bromage, Daniel

AU - Nikiphorou, Elena

AU - Chukwusa, Emeka

AU - Higginson, Irene

AU - Sleeman, Katherine

AU - Becares, Laia

AU - O’Connell, Matthew

AU - Hocaoglu, Mevhibe

AU - Cripps, Rachel

AU - Killick, Richard

AU - Curcin, Vasa

AU - Nafilyan, Vahé

AU - Mandal, Swapna

AU - Fraser, Lorna

PY - 2025/7/1

Y1 - 2025/7/1

N2 - Background We describe the epidemiology of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) from 2004 to 2023 in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (NI) using a harmonised approach. Methods Data from the National Health Service England (NHSE), Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, DataLoch in South-East Scotland and the Honest Broker Service in NI were used. A harmonised approach to COPD, asthma and ILD case definitions, study designs and study populations across the four nations was performed. Age-sex-standardised incidence rates and point prevalence were calculated between 2004 and 2023 depending on data availability. Logistic and negative binomial regression compared incidence and prevalence rates between the start and end of each study period. Linear extrapolation projected incidence rates between 2020 and 2023 to illustrate how observed and projected rates differed. Results Incidence rates were lower in 2019 versus 2005 for asthma (England: incidence rate ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.90; Wales: 0.66, 0.65 to 0.68; Scotland: 0.67, 0.64 to 0.71; NI: 0.84, 0.81 to 0.86), COPD (England: 0.83, 0.82 to 0.85; Wales: 0.67, 0.65 to 0.69) and higher for ILD (England: 3.27, 3.05 to 3.50; Wales: 1.39, 1.27 to 1.53; Scotland: 1.63, 1.36 to 1.95; NI: 3.03, 2.47 to 3.72). In NHSE, the incidence of asthma was similar in June 2023 versus November 2019, but lower for COPD and higher for ILD. Prevalence of asthma in 2019 in England, Wales, Scotland and NI was 9.7%, 15.9%, 13.2% and 7.0%, respectively, for COPD 4.5%, 5.1%, 4.4% and 3.0%, and for ILD 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.3%. Projected incidence rates were 2.8, 3.4 and 1.8 times lower for asthma, COPD and ILD compared with observed rates at the height of the pandemic. Interpretation Asthma, COPD and ILD affect over 10 million people across the four nations, and a substantial number of diagnoses were missed during the pandemic.

AB - Background We describe the epidemiology of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and interstitial lung disease (ILD) from 2004 to 2023 in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (NI) using a harmonised approach. Methods Data from the National Health Service England (NHSE), Clinical Practice Research Datalink Aurum in England, Secure Anonymised Information Linkage Databank in Wales, DataLoch in South-East Scotland and the Honest Broker Service in NI were used. A harmonised approach to COPD, asthma and ILD case definitions, study designs and study populations across the four nations was performed. Age-sex-standardised incidence rates and point prevalence were calculated between 2004 and 2023 depending on data availability. Logistic and negative binomial regression compared incidence and prevalence rates between the start and end of each study period. Linear extrapolation projected incidence rates between 2020 and 2023 to illustrate how observed and projected rates differed. Results Incidence rates were lower in 2019 versus 2005 for asthma (England: incidence rate ratio 0.89, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.90; Wales: 0.66, 0.65 to 0.68; Scotland: 0.67, 0.64 to 0.71; NI: 0.84, 0.81 to 0.86), COPD (England: 0.83, 0.82 to 0.85; Wales: 0.67, 0.65 to 0.69) and higher for ILD (England: 3.27, 3.05 to 3.50; Wales: 1.39, 1.27 to 1.53; Scotland: 1.63, 1.36 to 1.95; NI: 3.03, 2.47 to 3.72). In NHSE, the incidence of asthma was similar in June 2023 versus November 2019, but lower for COPD and higher for ILD. Prevalence of asthma in 2019 in England, Wales, Scotland and NI was 9.7%, 15.9%, 13.2% and 7.0%, respectively, for COPD 4.5%, 5.1%, 4.4% and 3.0%, and for ILD 0.4%, 0.5%, 0.6% and 0.3%. Projected incidence rates were 2.8, 3.4 and 1.8 times lower for asthma, COPD and ILD compared with observed rates at the height of the pandemic. Interpretation Asthma, COPD and ILD affect over 10 million people across the four nations, and a substantial number of diagnoses were missed during the pandemic.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=105004274083&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1136/thorax-2024-222699

DO - 10.1136/thorax-2024-222699

M3 - Article

C2 - 40199588

AN - SCOPUS:105004274083

SN - 0040-6376

VL - 80

SP - 466

EP - 477

JO - Thorax

JF - Thorax

IS - 7

M1 - 10.1136/thorax-2024-222699

ER -

CVD-COVID-UK/COVID-IMPACT Consortium, Whittaker H, Machado AKF, Hatam S, Cook S, Scully S et al. Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland. Thorax. 2025 Jul 1;80(7):466-477. 10.1136/thorax-2024-222699. Epub 2025 Apr 8. doi: 10.1136/thorax-2024-222699

Incidence and prevalence of asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and interstitial lung disease between 2004 and 2023: harmonised analyses of longitudinal cohorts across England, Wales, South-East Scotland and Northern Ireland

Abstract

UN SDGs

Access to Document

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Cite this