Iran's Nuclear Programme: A Case Study in Hedging?

TY - JOUR

T1 - Iran's Nuclear Programme

T2 - A Case Study in Hedging?

AU - Bowen, Wyn

AU - Moran, Matthew

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - This article examines Iranian proliferation behaviour through the lens of nuclear hedging. Defined as ‘nuclear latency with intent’, hedging is an area of proliferation behaviour that has not been fully explored. The Iranian case presents an outstanding example of the questions and types of evidence required to judge whether a nuclear programme is engaged in a hedging strategy. By examining a nuclear programme from three distinct angles – technical, narrative and diplomatic – key elements of strategic hedging can be identified. Applied to Iran, evidence supports a diagnosis of hedging. But this assessment is further complicated by Iran's domestic political context, which has engendered an approach that is as much ‘hedging by default’ as it is ‘hedging by design’. This approach allows Tehran to reconcile restraint with domestic consensus on nuclear advancement. In this regard, our analysis shows that international exposure of Iran's undeclared nuclear activities had an enormous impact on the direction of Iran's nuclear programme, placing important constraints on Iran's nuclear progress. The article argues that any solution to the Iranian nuclear challenge must be based on realistic goals. The international community should focus on containing Iranian advancements rather than rollback, with a view to restricting hedging to a low level of latency.

AB - This article examines Iranian proliferation behaviour through the lens of nuclear hedging. Defined as ‘nuclear latency with intent’, hedging is an area of proliferation behaviour that has not been fully explored. The Iranian case presents an outstanding example of the questions and types of evidence required to judge whether a nuclear programme is engaged in a hedging strategy. By examining a nuclear programme from three distinct angles – technical, narrative and diplomatic – key elements of strategic hedging can be identified. Applied to Iran, evidence supports a diagnosis of hedging. But this assessment is further complicated by Iran's domestic political context, which has engendered an approach that is as much ‘hedging by default’ as it is ‘hedging by design’. This approach allows Tehran to reconcile restraint with domestic consensus on nuclear advancement. In this regard, our analysis shows that international exposure of Iran's undeclared nuclear activities had an enormous impact on the direction of Iran's nuclear programme, placing important constraints on Iran's nuclear progress. The article argues that any solution to the Iranian nuclear challenge must be based on realistic goals. The international community should focus on containing Iranian advancements rather than rollback, with a view to restricting hedging to a low level of latency.

KW - Iran

KW - nuclear hedging

KW - nuclear proliferation

KW - international security

U2 - 10.1080/13523260.2014.884338

DO - 10.1080/13523260.2014.884338

M3 - Article

SN - 1352-3260

VL - 35

SP - 26

EP - 52

JO - Contemporary Security Policy

JF - Contemporary Security Policy

IS - 1

ER -