Jumping to conclusions, general intelligence, and psychosis liability: Findings from the multi-centre EU-GEI case-control study

Giada Tripoli*, Diego Quattrone, Laura Ferraro, Charlotte Gayer-Anderson, Victoria Rodriguez, Caterina La Cascia, Daniele La Barbera, Crocettarachele Sartorio, Fabio Seminerio, Ilaria Tarricone, Domenico Berardi, Andrei Szöke, Celso Arango, Andrea Tortelli, Pierre Michel Llorca, Lieuwe De Haan, Eva Velthorst, Julio Bobes, Miguel Bernardo, Julio SanjuánJose Luis Santos, Manuel Arrojo, Cristina Marta Del-Ben, Paulo Rossi Menezes, Jean Paul Selten, Peter B. Jones, Hannah E. Jongsma, James B. Kirkbride, Antonio Lasalvia, Sarah Tosato, Alex Richards, Michael O'donovan, Bart P.F. Rutten, Jim van Os, Craig Morgan, Pak C. Sham, Robin M. Murray, Graham K. Murray, Marta Di Forti

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

24 Citations (Scopus)


BackgroundThe 'jumping to conclusions' (JTC) bias is associated with both psychosis and general cognition but their relationship is unclear. In this study, we set out to clarify the relationship between the JTC bias, IQ, psychosis and polygenic liability to schizophrenia and IQ.MethodsA total of 817 first episode psychosis patients and 1294 population-based controls completed assessments of general intelligence (IQ), and JTC, and provided blood or saliva samples from which we extracted DNA and computed polygenic risk scores for IQ and schizophrenia.ResultsThe estimated proportion of the total effect of case/control differences on JTC mediated by IQ was 79%. Schizophrenia polygenic risk score was non-significantly associated with a higher number of beads drawn (B = 0.47, 95% CI-0.21 to 1.16, p = 0.17); whereas IQ PRS (B = 0.51, 95% CI 0.25-0.76, p < 0.001) significantly predicted the number of beads drawn, and was thus associated with reduced JTC bias. The JTC was more strongly associated with the higher level of psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) in controls, including after controlling for IQ (B =-1.7, 95% CI-2.8 to-0.5, p = 0.006), but did not relate to delusions in patients.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that the JTC reasoning bias in psychosis might not be a specific cognitive deficit but rather a manifestation or consequence, of general cognitive impairment. Whereas, in the general population, the JTC bias is related to PLEs, independent of IQ. The work has the potential to inform interventions targeting cognitive biases in early psychosis.

Original languageEnglish
JournalPsychological Medicine
Publication statusAccepted/In press - 1 Jan 2020


  • First episode psychosis
  • IQ
  • jumping to conclusions
  • polygenic risk score
  • psychotic-like experiences
  • symptom dimensions


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