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Mitigating Poverty: Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic

Research output: Working paper/PreprintWorking paper

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Mitigating Poverty : Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic. / Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna; Gray Molina, George ; Montoya-Aguirre, María; Ortiz Juarez, Eduardo.

New York : United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2021. (Development Futures Series Working Papers).

Research output: Working paper/PreprintWorking paper

Harvard

Fajardo-Gonzalez, J, Gray Molina, G, Montoya-Aguirre, M & Ortiz Juarez, E 2021 'Mitigating Poverty: Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic' Development Futures Series Working Papers, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), New York. <https://www.undp.org/publications/mitigating-poverty-global-estimates-impact-income-support-during-pandemic>

APA

Fajardo-Gonzalez, J., Gray Molina, G., Montoya-Aguirre, M., & Ortiz Juarez, E. (2021). Mitigating Poverty: Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic. (Development Futures Series Working Papers). United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). https://www.undp.org/publications/mitigating-poverty-global-estimates-impact-income-support-during-pandemic

Vancouver

Fajardo-Gonzalez J, Gray Molina G, Montoya-Aguirre M, Ortiz Juarez E. Mitigating Poverty: Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic. New York: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). 2021 Jul 7. (Development Futures Series Working Papers).

Author

Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna ; Gray Molina, George ; Montoya-Aguirre, María ; Ortiz Juarez, Eduardo. / Mitigating Poverty : Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic. New York : United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), 2021. (Development Futures Series Working Papers).

Bibtex Download

@techreport{1adfddaa1992402e8aac2bf095cab7de,
title = "Mitigating Poverty: Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic",
abstract = "This paper reconstructs the full welfare distributions from household surveys of 160 countries, covering 96.5 percent of the global population, to estimate the pandemic-induced increases in global poverty and provide information on the potential short-term effects of income-support programmes on mitigating such increases. Crucially, the analysis performs a large-scale simulation by combining the welfare distributions with the database of social protection measures of Gentilini et al. (2021) and estimates such effects from 72 actual income-support programmes planned or implemented across 41 countries. The paper reports three findings: First, the projection of additional extreme poverty, in the absence of income support, ranges between 117 million people under a distributive-neutral projection and 168 million people under a distributive-regressive projection —which may better reflect how the shock impacted poor and vulnerable households. Second, a simulation of the hypothetical effects of a temporary basic income with an investment of 0.5 percent of developing countries{\textquoteright} GDP, spread over six months, finds that this amount would mitigate to a large extent, at least temporarily, the increase in global poverty at both the $1.90- and $3.20-a-day thresholds, although poverty would still increase significantly in the poorest regions of the world. Third, the analysis of income-support programmes in 41 countries suggests that they may have mitigated, at least temporarily, the overall increase in poverty in upper-middle income countries but may have been insufficient to mitigate the increase in poverty at any poverty line in low-income countries. Income support likely mitigated 60 percent of the increase in poverty at the $3.20-a-day threshold and 20 percent at the $5.50-a-day threshold among lower-middle-income countries. This pattern is correlated with the amount of social assistance per capita payments made in each country.",
author = "Johanna Fajardo-Gonzalez and {Gray Molina}, George and Mar{\'i}a Montoya-Aguirre and {Ortiz Juarez}, Eduardo",
year = "2021",
month = jul,
day = "7",
language = "English",
series = "Development Futures Series Working Papers",
publisher = "United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)",
type = "WorkingPaper",
institution = "United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) Download

TY - UNPB

T1 - Mitigating Poverty

T2 - Global Estimates of the Impact of Income Support during the Pandemic

AU - Fajardo-Gonzalez, Johanna

AU - Gray Molina, George

AU - Montoya-Aguirre, María

AU - Ortiz Juarez, Eduardo

PY - 2021/7/7

Y1 - 2021/7/7

N2 - This paper reconstructs the full welfare distributions from household surveys of 160 countries, covering 96.5 percent of the global population, to estimate the pandemic-induced increases in global poverty and provide information on the potential short-term effects of income-support programmes on mitigating such increases. Crucially, the analysis performs a large-scale simulation by combining the welfare distributions with the database of social protection measures of Gentilini et al. (2021) and estimates such effects from 72 actual income-support programmes planned or implemented across 41 countries. The paper reports three findings: First, the projection of additional extreme poverty, in the absence of income support, ranges between 117 million people under a distributive-neutral projection and 168 million people under a distributive-regressive projection —which may better reflect how the shock impacted poor and vulnerable households. Second, a simulation of the hypothetical effects of a temporary basic income with an investment of 0.5 percent of developing countries’ GDP, spread over six months, finds that this amount would mitigate to a large extent, at least temporarily, the increase in global poverty at both the $1.90- and $3.20-a-day thresholds, although poverty would still increase significantly in the poorest regions of the world. Third, the analysis of income-support programmes in 41 countries suggests that they may have mitigated, at least temporarily, the overall increase in poverty in upper-middle income countries but may have been insufficient to mitigate the increase in poverty at any poverty line in low-income countries. Income support likely mitigated 60 percent of the increase in poverty at the $3.20-a-day threshold and 20 percent at the $5.50-a-day threshold among lower-middle-income countries. This pattern is correlated with the amount of social assistance per capita payments made in each country.

AB - This paper reconstructs the full welfare distributions from household surveys of 160 countries, covering 96.5 percent of the global population, to estimate the pandemic-induced increases in global poverty and provide information on the potential short-term effects of income-support programmes on mitigating such increases. Crucially, the analysis performs a large-scale simulation by combining the welfare distributions with the database of social protection measures of Gentilini et al. (2021) and estimates such effects from 72 actual income-support programmes planned or implemented across 41 countries. The paper reports three findings: First, the projection of additional extreme poverty, in the absence of income support, ranges between 117 million people under a distributive-neutral projection and 168 million people under a distributive-regressive projection —which may better reflect how the shock impacted poor and vulnerable households. Second, a simulation of the hypothetical effects of a temporary basic income with an investment of 0.5 percent of developing countries’ GDP, spread over six months, finds that this amount would mitigate to a large extent, at least temporarily, the increase in global poverty at both the $1.90- and $3.20-a-day thresholds, although poverty would still increase significantly in the poorest regions of the world. Third, the analysis of income-support programmes in 41 countries suggests that they may have mitigated, at least temporarily, the overall increase in poverty in upper-middle income countries but may have been insufficient to mitigate the increase in poverty at any poverty line in low-income countries. Income support likely mitigated 60 percent of the increase in poverty at the $3.20-a-day threshold and 20 percent at the $5.50-a-day threshold among lower-middle-income countries. This pattern is correlated with the amount of social assistance per capita payments made in each country.

M3 - Working paper

T3 - Development Futures Series Working Papers

BT - Mitigating Poverty

PB - United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)

CY - New York

ER -

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