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Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale

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Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale. / Müller, Birgit; Polhill, J. Gareth ; Millington, James; Seppelt, Ralf; Verburg, Peter H.

In: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 63, 102085, 07.2020.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Harvard

Müller, B, Polhill, JG, Millington, J, Seppelt, R & Verburg, PH 2020, 'Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale', Global Environmental Change, vol. 63, 102085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085

APA

Müller, B., Polhill, J. G., Millington, J., Seppelt, R., & Verburg, P. H. (2020). Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale. Global Environmental Change, 63, [102085]. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085

Vancouver

Müller B, Polhill JG, Millington J, Seppelt R, Verburg PH. Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale. Global Environmental Change. 2020 Jul;63. 102085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085

Author

Müller, Birgit ; Polhill, J. Gareth ; Millington, James ; Seppelt, Ralf ; Verburg, Peter H. / Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale. In: Global Environmental Change. 2020 ; Vol. 63.

Bibtex Download

@article{92d60a53253c441fb755bce104dda948,
title = "Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale",
abstract = "Achieving food and nutrition security for all in a changing and globalized world remains a critical challenge of utmost importance. The development of solutions benefits from insights derived from modelling and simulating the complex interactions of the agri-food system, which range from global to household scales and transcend disciplinary boundaries. A wide range of models based on various methodologies (from food trade equilibrium to agent-based) seek to integrate direct and indirect drivers of change in land use, environment and socio-economic conditions at different scales. However, modelling such interaction poses fundamental challenges, especially for representing non-linear dynamics and adaptive behaviours. We identify key pieces of the fragmented landscape of food security modelling, and organize achievements and gaps into different contextual domains of food security (production, trade, and consumption) at different spatial scales. Building on in-depth reflection on three core issues of food security – volatility, technology, and transformation – we identify methodological challenges and promising strategies for advancement. We emphasize particular requirements related to the multifaceted and multiscale nature of food security. They include the explicit representation of transient dynamics to allow for path dependency and irreversible consequences, and of household heterogeneity to incorporate inequality issues. To illustrate ways forward we provide good practice examples using meta-modelling techniques, non-equilibrium approaches and behavioural-based modelling endeavours. We argue that further integration of different model types is required to better account for both multi-level agency and cross-scale feedbacks within the food system.",
keywords = "Agent-based models, Crop models, Economic equilibrium models, Food security, Land use, Model integration, Multi-scale interactions, Social-ecological feedbacks",
author = "Birgit M{\"u}ller and Polhill, {J. Gareth} and James Millington and Ralf Seppelt and Verburg, {Peter H.}",
year = "2020",
month = jul,
doi = "10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085",
language = "English",
volume = "63",
journal = "Global Environmental Change",
issn = "0959-3780",
publisher = "Elsevier Science Ltd",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Modelling Food Security: Bridging the Gap between the Micro and the Macro Scale

AU - Müller, Birgit

AU - Polhill, J. Gareth

AU - Millington, James

AU - Seppelt, Ralf

AU - Verburg, Peter H.

PY - 2020/7

Y1 - 2020/7

N2 - Achieving food and nutrition security for all in a changing and globalized world remains a critical challenge of utmost importance. The development of solutions benefits from insights derived from modelling and simulating the complex interactions of the agri-food system, which range from global to household scales and transcend disciplinary boundaries. A wide range of models based on various methodologies (from food trade equilibrium to agent-based) seek to integrate direct and indirect drivers of change in land use, environment and socio-economic conditions at different scales. However, modelling such interaction poses fundamental challenges, especially for representing non-linear dynamics and adaptive behaviours. We identify key pieces of the fragmented landscape of food security modelling, and organize achievements and gaps into different contextual domains of food security (production, trade, and consumption) at different spatial scales. Building on in-depth reflection on three core issues of food security – volatility, technology, and transformation – we identify methodological challenges and promising strategies for advancement. We emphasize particular requirements related to the multifaceted and multiscale nature of food security. They include the explicit representation of transient dynamics to allow for path dependency and irreversible consequences, and of household heterogeneity to incorporate inequality issues. To illustrate ways forward we provide good practice examples using meta-modelling techniques, non-equilibrium approaches and behavioural-based modelling endeavours. We argue that further integration of different model types is required to better account for both multi-level agency and cross-scale feedbacks within the food system.

AB - Achieving food and nutrition security for all in a changing and globalized world remains a critical challenge of utmost importance. The development of solutions benefits from insights derived from modelling and simulating the complex interactions of the agri-food system, which range from global to household scales and transcend disciplinary boundaries. A wide range of models based on various methodologies (from food trade equilibrium to agent-based) seek to integrate direct and indirect drivers of change in land use, environment and socio-economic conditions at different scales. However, modelling such interaction poses fundamental challenges, especially for representing non-linear dynamics and adaptive behaviours. We identify key pieces of the fragmented landscape of food security modelling, and organize achievements and gaps into different contextual domains of food security (production, trade, and consumption) at different spatial scales. Building on in-depth reflection on three core issues of food security – volatility, technology, and transformation – we identify methodological challenges and promising strategies for advancement. We emphasize particular requirements related to the multifaceted and multiscale nature of food security. They include the explicit representation of transient dynamics to allow for path dependency and irreversible consequences, and of household heterogeneity to incorporate inequality issues. To illustrate ways forward we provide good practice examples using meta-modelling techniques, non-equilibrium approaches and behavioural-based modelling endeavours. We argue that further integration of different model types is required to better account for both multi-level agency and cross-scale feedbacks within the food system.

KW - Agent-based models

KW - Crop models

KW - Economic equilibrium models

KW - Food security

KW - Land use

KW - Model integration

KW - Multi-scale interactions

KW - Social-ecological feedbacks

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85085139856&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085

DO - 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085

M3 - Article

VL - 63

JO - Global Environmental Change

JF - Global Environmental Change

SN - 0959-3780

M1 - 102085

ER -

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