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Modelling the Conditional Distribution of Daily Stock Index Returns : An Alternative Bayesian Semiparametric Model

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Maria Kalli, Stephen Walker, Paul Damien

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)371-383
Number of pages13
JournalJournal of Business and Economic Statistics
Issue number4
Published1 Oct 2013

King's Authors


This paper introduces a new family of Bayesian semi-parametric models for the condi- tional distribution of daily stock index returns. The proposed models capture key stylized facts of such returns, namely heavy tails, asymmetry, volatility clustering, and the ‘leverage effect’. A Bayesian nonparametric prior is used to generate random density functions that are uni- modal and asymmetric. Volatility is modelled parametrically. The new model is applied to the daily returns of the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and EUROSTOXX 50 indices and is compared to GARCH, Stochastic Volatility, and other Bayesian semi-parametric models.

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