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Neural Network based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Ilkay Oksuz, Umut Ugurlu

Original languageEnglish
Number of pages15
JournalEnergies
Accepted/In press27 Nov 2019

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Abstract

The intraday electricity markets are continuous trade platforms for each hour of the day and have specific characteristics. These markets have shown an increasing number of transactions due to the requirement of close to delivery electricity trade. Recently, intraday electricity price market research has seen a rapid increase in a number of works for price prediction. However, most of these works focus on the features and descriptive statistics of the intraday electricity markets and overlook the comparison of different available models. In this paper, we compare a variety of methods including neural networks to predict intraday electricity market prices in Turkish intraday market. The recurrent neural networks methods outperform the classical methods. Furthermore, Gated Recurrent Unit network architecture achieves the best results with a mean absolute error of 0.978 and a root mean square error of 1.302. Moreover, our results indicate that day-ahead market price of the corresponding hour is a key feature for intraday price forecasting and estimating spread values with day-ahead prices proves to be more efficient way for prediction.

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