King's College London

Neural respiratory drive (NRD), as reflected by change in parasternal muscle electromyogram (EMGpara), predicts clinical deterioration and safe discharge in patients admitted to hospital with an acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD). The clinical utility of NRD to predict the long-term outcome of patients following hospital admission with an AECOPD is unknown. We undertook a post hoc analysis of a previously published prospective observational cohort study measuring NRD in 120 patients with AECOPD. Sixty-nine (57.5%) patients died during follow-up (median 3.6 years). Respiratory failure was the most common cause of death (n=29; 42%). In multivariate analysis, factors independently associated with an increased mortality included NRD (HR 2.14, 95% CI 1.29 to 3.54, p=0.003), age (HR 2.03, 95% CI 1.23 to 3.34, p=0.006), PaCO 2 at admission (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.06 to 3.06, p=0.022) and long-term oxygen use (HR 2.98, 95% CI 1.47 to 6.03, p=0.002). NRD at hospital discharge could be measured in order to assess efficacy of interventions targeted to optimise COPD and reduce mortality following an AECOPD. Original clinicaltrial.gov number: NCT01361451