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Nuclear terrorism and virtual risk: Implications for prediction and the utility of models

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)203-222
Number of pages20
JournalEuropean Journal of International Security
Volume2
Issue number2
Early online date2 May 2017
DOIs
Accepted/In press2017
E-pub ahead of print2 May 2017
PublishedJul 2017

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Abstract

Assessing the risk of nuclear terrorism is a challenging task due to the diversity of actors involved, variety of pathways to success, range of defensive measures employed, and the lack of detailed historical record upon which to base a nalysis. Numerical models developed to date vary wildly in both approach and ultimate assessment: estimates of the likelihood a nuclear terrorist attack differ by up to nine orders of magnitude. This paper critiques existing efforts from the standpoint of probability theory, and proposes an alternative perspective on the utility of risk assessment in this area. Nuclear terrorism is argued to be a ‘virtual risk’ for which it is not possible to meaningfully ascribe a quantitative measure, making numerical estimates of the likelihood of nuclear terrorism misleading. Instead, we argue that focus should be placed on utilising models to identify areas of disagreement as targets for further research, with greater emphasis on understanding terrorist decision-making and adaption in response to nuclear security measures.

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