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Outcome studies of autistic adults: Quantifying effect size, Quality, and Meta-regression

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Original languageEnglish
JournalJournal of Autism and Developmental Disorders
Published17 Nov 2020


  • 20201109_Mason_et_al_Manuscript

    20201109_Mason_et_al_Manuscript.docx, 230 KB, application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.wordprocessingml.document

    Uploaded date:14 Nov 2020

    Version:Accepted author manuscript

King's Authors


Longitudinal studies have generally reported poor outcomes in adulthood for the majority of individuals (c.50-60%) with autism. Several factors putatively predict outcome (e.g. IQ), but findings remain mixed. This paper presents an updated meta-analysis of autism outcome studies and extends previous findings with additional analyses (including meta-regression). A total of 4,088 records was screened and 18 studies, involving 1,199 individuals, were included in the quantitative analysis. Estimated percentages indicated that 20.0% of participants were rated as having a good outcome, 26.6% a fair outcome, and 49.3% a poor outcome. Meta-regression indicated that lower IQ in adulthood was predictive of poor outcome; other meta-regression models did not survive correction for multiple comparisons. Overall, outcomes for autistic people are on average poor, and higher IQ appears to be protective against having a poor outcome. The limitations of current constructs of outcome are discussed.

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