PAST, CURRENT, AND FUTURE TRENDS OF HAEMORRHAGIC STROKE IN EUROPE: A MODELLING STUDY OF INCIDENCE, PREVALENCE, AND MORTALITY

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Abstract

Group Name: The PRESTIGE-AF Collaborators

Background And Aims: To estimate trends and 30-year projections of haemorrhagic stroke (HS) incidence, prevalence, and deaths in the European Union (EU) using a multiple modelling approach.

Methods: Data were obtained from the global burden of disease study for each individual EU country between 1990–2017. Rates were modelled by age-sex-country groups using three strategies: linear, Poisson, and exponential regressions-adjusted for the gross domestic product per capita (GDP). We used the Akaike information criterion (AIC) for model selection. Direct adjustment to the 2013 European Standard Population was performed. The United Nations’ (UN) population projections and the Wold Bank’s prospects of GDP were incorporated in order to make projections up to 2047.

Results: Between 1990 and 2017, the adjusted HS incidence rate has declined in the EU by 46% (from 77.3 to 41.5/100,000/year); prevalence, 32% (301–204); and mortality, 57% (72.3–30.8). Similar reductions are expected during 2017–2047: 46%, 31%, and 51% respectively. In 2047, we estimate 182 thousand HS incident cases, 826 thousand HS survivors, and 144 thousand HS deaths. Compared to 2017, these numbers represent declines of 17%, 22%, and 13% respectively. Romania is expected to continue having the greatest HS incidence, prevalence, and death rates in Europe by 2047 (87, 396, and 129/100,000/year respectively). Comparable rates are predicted to be as low as 14, 103, and 6/100,000/year respectively in Western Europe.

Conclusions: Despite the population ageing, the absolute impact of HS in Europe declined between 1990–2017 and will continue to decline till 2047. However, variations between EU countries are expected to persist, showing opportunities for further reductions.

Trial Registration Number: N/A
Original languageEnglish
Article number00170/#1389
Pages (from-to)46-46
JournalInternational Journal Of Stroke
Volume15
Issue number1_suppl
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 7 Nov 2020

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