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Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world

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Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world. / Paiva Brandao De Napoles Sarmento, Vera; Higginson, Irene J; Ferreira, Pedro L; Gomes, Barbara.

In: Palliative Medicine, 10.07.2015.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Paiva Brandao De Napoles Sarmento, V, Higginson, IJ, Ferreira, PL & Gomes, B 2015, 'Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world', Palliative Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1177/0269216315594974

APA

Paiva Brandao De Napoles Sarmento, V., Higginson, I. J., Ferreira, P. L., & Gomes, B. (2015). Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world. Palliative Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1177/0269216315594974

Vancouver

Paiva Brandao De Napoles Sarmento V, Higginson IJ, Ferreira PL, Gomes B. Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world. Palliative Medicine. 2015 Jul 10. https://doi.org/10.1177/0269216315594974

Author

Paiva Brandao De Napoles Sarmento, Vera ; Higginson, Irene J ; Ferreira, Pedro L ; Gomes, Barbara. / Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world. In: Palliative Medicine. 2015.

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@article{1e79fdefecbd458bbdf136b5a9b2b530,
title = "Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world",
abstract = "BACKGROUND: Monitoring where people die is key to ensure that palliative care is provided in a responsive and integrated way.AIM: To examine trends of place of death and project hospital deaths until 2030 in an ageing country without integrated palliative care.DESIGN: Population-based observational study of mortality with past trends analysis of place of death by gender, age and cause of death. Hospital deaths were projected until 2030, applying three scenarios modelled on 5-year trends (2006-2010).SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: All adult deaths (⩾18 years old) that occurred in Portuguese territory from 1988 to 2010.RESULTS: There were 2,364,932 deceased adults in Portugal from 1988 to 2010. Annual numbers of deaths increased 11.1%, from 95,154 in 1988 to 105,691, mainly due to more than doubling deaths from people aged 85+ years. Hospital deaths increased by a mean of 0.8% per year, from 44.7% (n = 42,571) in 1988 to 61.7% (n = 65,221) in 2010. This rise was largest for those aged 85+ years (27.8% to 54.0%). Regardless of the scenario considered, and if current trends continue, hospital deaths will increase by more than a quarter until 2030 (minimum 27.7%, maximum 52.1% rise) to at least 83,293 annual hospital deaths, mainly due to the increase in hospital deaths in those aged 85+ years.CONCLUSION: In one of the most ageing countries in the world, there is a long standing trend towards hospitalised dying, more pronounced among the oldest old. To meet people's preferences for dying at home, the development of integrated specialist home palliative care teams is needed.",
author = "{Paiva Brandao De Napoles Sarmento}, Vera and Higginson, {Irene J} and Ferreira, {Pedro L} and Barbara Gomes",
note = "{\textcopyright} The Author(s) 2015.",
year = "2015",
month = jul,
day = "10",
doi = "10.1177/0269216315594974",
language = "English",
journal = "Palliative Medicine",
issn = "0269-2163",

}

RIS (suitable for import to EndNote) Download

TY - JOUR

T1 - Past trends and projections of hospital deaths to inform the integration of palliative care in one of the most ageing countries in the world

AU - Paiva Brandao De Napoles Sarmento, Vera

AU - Higginson, Irene J

AU - Ferreira, Pedro L

AU - Gomes, Barbara

N1 - © The Author(s) 2015.

PY - 2015/7/10

Y1 - 2015/7/10

N2 - BACKGROUND: Monitoring where people die is key to ensure that palliative care is provided in a responsive and integrated way.AIM: To examine trends of place of death and project hospital deaths until 2030 in an ageing country without integrated palliative care.DESIGN: Population-based observational study of mortality with past trends analysis of place of death by gender, age and cause of death. Hospital deaths were projected until 2030, applying three scenarios modelled on 5-year trends (2006-2010).SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: All adult deaths (⩾18 years old) that occurred in Portuguese territory from 1988 to 2010.RESULTS: There were 2,364,932 deceased adults in Portugal from 1988 to 2010. Annual numbers of deaths increased 11.1%, from 95,154 in 1988 to 105,691, mainly due to more than doubling deaths from people aged 85+ years. Hospital deaths increased by a mean of 0.8% per year, from 44.7% (n = 42,571) in 1988 to 61.7% (n = 65,221) in 2010. This rise was largest for those aged 85+ years (27.8% to 54.0%). Regardless of the scenario considered, and if current trends continue, hospital deaths will increase by more than a quarter until 2030 (minimum 27.7%, maximum 52.1% rise) to at least 83,293 annual hospital deaths, mainly due to the increase in hospital deaths in those aged 85+ years.CONCLUSION: In one of the most ageing countries in the world, there is a long standing trend towards hospitalised dying, more pronounced among the oldest old. To meet people's preferences for dying at home, the development of integrated specialist home palliative care teams is needed.

AB - BACKGROUND: Monitoring where people die is key to ensure that palliative care is provided in a responsive and integrated way.AIM: To examine trends of place of death and project hospital deaths until 2030 in an ageing country without integrated palliative care.DESIGN: Population-based observational study of mortality with past trends analysis of place of death by gender, age and cause of death. Hospital deaths were projected until 2030, applying three scenarios modelled on 5-year trends (2006-2010).SETTING/PARTICIPANTS: All adult deaths (⩾18 years old) that occurred in Portuguese territory from 1988 to 2010.RESULTS: There were 2,364,932 deceased adults in Portugal from 1988 to 2010. Annual numbers of deaths increased 11.1%, from 95,154 in 1988 to 105,691, mainly due to more than doubling deaths from people aged 85+ years. Hospital deaths increased by a mean of 0.8% per year, from 44.7% (n = 42,571) in 1988 to 61.7% (n = 65,221) in 2010. This rise was largest for those aged 85+ years (27.8% to 54.0%). Regardless of the scenario considered, and if current trends continue, hospital deaths will increase by more than a quarter until 2030 (minimum 27.7%, maximum 52.1% rise) to at least 83,293 annual hospital deaths, mainly due to the increase in hospital deaths in those aged 85+ years.CONCLUSION: In one of the most ageing countries in the world, there is a long standing trend towards hospitalised dying, more pronounced among the oldest old. To meet people's preferences for dying at home, the development of integrated specialist home palliative care teams is needed.

U2 - 10.1177/0269216315594974

DO - 10.1177/0269216315594974

M3 - Article

C2 - 26163531

JO - Palliative Medicine

JF - Palliative Medicine

SN - 0269-2163

ER -

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