Performance Rating Equilibrium

TY - UNPB

T1 - Performance Rating Equilibrium

AU - Ismail, Mehmet

PY - 2024/10/11

Y1 - 2024/10/11

N2 - In this note, I introduce a novel performance rating system called Performance Rating Equilibrium (PRE). A PRE is a vector of ratings for each player, such that if these ratings were each player's initial rating at the start of a tournament, scoring the same points against the same opponents would leave each player's initial rating unchanged. In other words, all players' initial ratings perfectly predict their actual scores in the tournament. This property, however, does not hold for the well-known Tournament Performance Rating. PRE is defined as a fixed point of a multidimensional rating function. I show that such a fixed point, and hence a PRE, exists under mild conditions. I provide an implementation of PRE along with several empirical applications. PREs have broad applicability, from sports competitions to the evaluation of large language models.

AB - In this note, I introduce a novel performance rating system called Performance Rating Equilibrium (PRE). A PRE is a vector of ratings for each player, such that if these ratings were each player's initial rating at the start of a tournament, scoring the same points against the same opponents would leave each player's initial rating unchanged. In other words, all players' initial ratings perfectly predict their actual scores in the tournament. This property, however, does not hold for the well-known Tournament Performance Rating. PRE is defined as a fixed point of a multidimensional rating function. I show that such a fixed point, and hence a PRE, exists under mild conditions. I provide an implementation of PRE along with several empirical applications. PREs have broad applicability, from sports competitions to the evaluation of large language models.

KW - tournament performance rating

KW - Elo rating

KW - chess

M3 - Working paper

BT - Performance Rating Equilibrium

ER -