Policies for london nitrogen dioxide (NO₂)compliance

TY - CONF

T1 - Policies for london nitrogen dioxide (NO2)compliance

AU - Dajnak, David

AU - Stewart, Gregor

AU - Beevers, Sean

PY - 2017/1/1

Y1 - 2017/1/1

N2 - Over one tenth of the UK population live in London and since London’s air pollution concentrations are predicted to exceed legal NO2 limits until at least 2030 (DEFRA, 2015), London requires a bold combination of policies to tackle its air pollution problems. Road transport is the most significant source of NOX emissions in London with diesel vehicles the greatest contributor (TfL and GLA, 2013/2016). The current air pollution challenge, primarily caused by a shift from petrol to diesel vehicles over the last 15 years, needs to be recognised and reversed. Our study in partnership with Policy Exchange (PX), the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Greenpeace (GP) builds on the Greater London Authority (GLA) implementation of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in 2020 (TfL, 2014). Our ambitious air quality strategy proposes a comprehensive package of measures focusing on road transport policies such as phasing out diesel cars in inner London, moving toward more sustainable road transport alternatives, restricting the most polluting vehicles entering London, cleaning up taxi and bus fleets, promoting electric vehicles and car clubs. The proposed policies (the scenario) result in large reductions in NOX emissions (45%) across London, relative to the projected outcome of the ULEZ (TfL, 2014) from the previous administration (the baseline). Our modelling results suggest significant improvement bringing nearly the whole of London into compliance with legal NO2 limits by 2025 and decreasing NO2 concentration levels below 20 μgm-3 from 16% in the baseline to nearly 36% in the scenario. This is important since there are still health impacts below the 40 μgm-3 limit value. However, some key hotspots of pollution, on major roads, still remain non-compliant and will need additional localised targeted actions. These air quality improvements are projected to have a pronounced positive effect upon health outcomes in the capital. Life expectancy for all Londoners born in 2025 is predicted to improve by 1.6 months. We estimate a gain of up to 1.4 million life-years over a lifetime across the population of Greater London, leading to an estimated annualised economic benefit of up to £800 million, relative to the baseline.

AB - Over one tenth of the UK population live in London and since London’s air pollution concentrations are predicted to exceed legal NO2 limits until at least 2030 (DEFRA, 2015), London requires a bold combination of policies to tackle its air pollution problems. Road transport is the most significant source of NOX emissions in London with diesel vehicles the greatest contributor (TfL and GLA, 2013/2016). The current air pollution challenge, primarily caused by a shift from petrol to diesel vehicles over the last 15 years, needs to be recognised and reversed. Our study in partnership with Policy Exchange (PX), the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) and Greenpeace (GP) builds on the Greater London Authority (GLA) implementation of the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) in 2020 (TfL, 2014). Our ambitious air quality strategy proposes a comprehensive package of measures focusing on road transport policies such as phasing out diesel cars in inner London, moving toward more sustainable road transport alternatives, restricting the most polluting vehicles entering London, cleaning up taxi and bus fleets, promoting electric vehicles and car clubs. The proposed policies (the scenario) result in large reductions in NOX emissions (45%) across London, relative to the projected outcome of the ULEZ (TfL, 2014) from the previous administration (the baseline). Our modelling results suggest significant improvement bringing nearly the whole of London into compliance with legal NO2 limits by 2025 and decreasing NO2 concentration levels below 20 μgm-3 from 16% in the baseline to nearly 36% in the scenario. This is important since there are still health impacts below the 40 μgm-3 limit value. However, some key hotspots of pollution, on major roads, still remain non-compliant and will need additional localised targeted actions. These air quality improvements are projected to have a pronounced positive effect upon health outcomes in the capital. Life expectancy for all Londoners born in 2025 is predicted to improve by 1.6 months. We estimate a gain of up to 1.4 million life-years over a lifetime across the population of Greater London, leading to an estimated annualised economic benefit of up to £800 million, relative to the baseline.

KW - Cost Benefit

KW - Dispersion Modelling

KW - Health Impact

KW - London Air Pollution

KW - Road Transport Strategy

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85047226905&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Paper

AN - SCOPUS:85047226905

SP - 218

EP - 222

T2 - 18th International Conference on Harmonisation within Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling for Regulatory Purposes, HARMO 2017

Y2 - 9 October 2017 through 12 October 2017

ER -