Predicting Deterioration in Mild Cognitive Impairment with Survival Transformers, Extreme Gradient Boosting and Cox Proportional Hazard Modelling

Henry Musto*, Daniel Stamate, Doina Logofatu, Daniel Stahl

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paperpeer-review

Abstract

The paper proposes a novel approach of survival transformers and extreme gradient boosting models in predicting cognitive deterioration in individuals with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) using metabolomics data in the ADNI cohort. By leveraging advanced machine learning and transformer-based techniques applied in survival analysis, the proposed approach highlights the potential of these techniques for more accurate early detection and intervention in Alzheimer’s dementia disease. This research also underscores the importance of non-invasive biomarkers and innovative modelling tools in enhancing the accuracy of dementia risk assessments, offering new avenues for clinical practice and patient care. A comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation procedure consisting of 100 repetitions of a nested cross-validation in which models were trained and evaluated, indicates that the survival machine learning models based on Transformer and XGBoost achieved the highest mean C-index performances, namely 0.85 and 0.8, respectively, and that they are superior to the conventional survival analysis Cox Proportional Hazards model which achieved a mean C-Index of 0.77. Moreover, based on the standard deviations of the C-Index performances obtained in the Monte Carlo simulation, we established that both survival machine learning models above are more stable than the conventional statistical model.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationArtificial Neural Networks and Machine Learning – ICANN 2024 - 33rd International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, Proceedings
EditorsMichael Wand, Jürgen Schmidhuber, Michael Wand, Kristína Malinovská, Jürgen Schmidhuber, Igor V. Tetko, Igor V. Tetko
PublisherSpringer Science and Business Media Deutschland GmbH
Pages359-372
Number of pages14
ISBN (Print)9783031723520
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 17 Sept 2024
Event33rd International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, ICANN 2024 - Lugano, Switzerland
Duration: 17 Sept 202420 Sept 2024

Publication series

NameLecture Notes in Computer Science (including subseries Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence and Lecture Notes in Bioinformatics)
Volume15023 LNCS
ISSN (Print)0302-9743
ISSN (Electronic)1611-3349

Conference

Conference33rd International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks, ICANN 2024
Country/TerritorySwitzerland
CityLugano
Period17/09/202420/09/2024

Keywords

  • Alzheimer’s
  • Cox Proportional Hazard
  • Metabolomics
  • Risk prediction
  • Survival machine learning
  • Transformers
  • XGBoost

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