Predicting first-episode psychosis associated with cannabis use with artificial neural networks and deep learning

Daniel Stamate, Wajdi Alghamdi*, Daniel Stahl, Ida Pu, Fionn Murtagh, Danielle Belgrave, Robin Murray, Marta di Forti

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference paperpeer-review

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Abstract

In recent years, a number of researches started to investigate the existence of links between cannabis use and psychotic disorder. More recently, artificial neural networks and in particular deep learning have set a revolutionary wave in pattern recognition and machine learning. This study proposes a novel machine learning approach based on neural network and deep learning algorithms, to developing highly accurate predictive models for the onset of first-episode psychosis. Our approach is based also on a novel methodology of optimising and post-processing the predictive models in a computationally intensive framework. A study of the trade-off between the volume of the data and the extent of uncertainty due to missing values, both of which influencing the predictive performance, enhanced this approach. Furthermore, we extended our approach by proposing and encapsulating a novel post-processing k-fold cross-testing method in order to further optimise, and test these models. The results show that the average accuracy in predicting first-episode psychosis achieved by our models in intensive Monte Carlo simulation, is about 89%.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationInformation Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems. Applications - 17th International Conference, IPMU 2018, Proceedings
PublisherSpringer Verlag
Pages691-702
Number of pages12
ISBN (Print)9783319914787
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 18 May 2018
Event17th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2018 - Cadiz, Spain
Duration: 11 Jun 201815 Jun 2018

Publication series

NameCommunications in Computer and Information Science
Volume855
ISSN (Print)1865-0929

Conference

Conference17th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2018
Country/TerritorySpain
CityCadiz
Period11/06/201815/06/2018

Keywords

  • Cannabis use
  • Classification
  • Deep learning
  • First-episode psychosis
  • Missing data based uncertainty
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • Neural network
  • Post-processing
  • Precision medicine
  • Prediction modelling

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